Taiwan’s military drones are unlikely to accelerate the US attack on mainland China

The report said private contractors will provide second-generation short-range unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), as well as miniature drones for targeting and surveillance, as well as ship- and land-based drones for military purposes.

When purchasing these seven drone types, “existing artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) technologies were taken into account,” the report says.

Features include one-button takeoff, autonomous return, flight route planning, dynamic target tracking and coordinated distance calculation “to reduce operator workload, minimize flight risks and improve operational efficiency,” it says.

The ministry underscored the importance of drones within its broader military plans, pointing to their widespread use in recent conflicts, including last year’s Azerbaijani offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The Armaments Office and the Ministry of Economy would jointly explore ways to improve the island’s defense capabilities by integrating domestic sources and production capacities while avoiding dependence on vulnerable “red supply chains,” it said.

The report also calls for the inclusion of new AI technologies in future drone development plans.

Su Tzu-yun, a senior analyst at the Institute for National Defence and Security Research, a government think tank, said the drones and UAVs are important for “developing asymmetric warfare strategies and improving methods of fighting adversaries”.

“Drones are difficult to detect on radar screens due to their relatively small size. The integration of AI technology is primarily intended to support decision-making systems and enable autonomous attacks in scenarios where communications are disrupted,” he said.

Despite the planned purchase, it will take some time before the drones are fully operational for military purposes, the experts said.

The chairman of the parliament’s foreign affairs and defense committee, Wang Ting-yu of the ruling, independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, said the drones would need to be integrated into military units before they could be used effectively.

“To ensure efficient and effective operations, validation methods tailored to each branch of the armed forces and command units are required,” he said.

According to Wang, the key to successful AI integration will be how the Chung Shan Institute and the local defense industry integrate AI into decision-making processes and C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) systems.

Military commentator Lu De-yun, a former press secretary for the Ministry of Defense, pointed out that AI-equipped drones are nothing new and most domestic UAVs have had this capability for at least a decade.

“These drones typically have functions such as flight route planning, target tracking and distance calculation, so they can record flight routes and return to their original starting point,” he said, adding that drones in mainland China have similar functionalities.

Lu said Taiwan is stepping up efforts to keep pace with the mainland and the United States, both of which already use drones on a large scale, but the “hellscape” strategy proposed by the head of the American Indo-Pacific Command is still a long way off.

Admiral Samuel Paparo said the plan – to thwart a mainland attack on the island by deploying an uncontrollable swarm of drones in the Taiwan Strait – was aimed at “making life difficult for Beijing for a month” and buying the United States the time it needs to respond.

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China that could be reunited with the mainland by force if necessary. The US, like most other countries, does not recognise the island, but Washington is against a unilateral change in the status quo.

03:11

Three days after William Lai’s speech, the People’s Liberation Army launches a blockade around Taiwan

Three days after William Lai’s speech, the People’s Liberation Army launches a blockade around Taiwan

According to Lu, Paparo’s war concept is still in the planning stages and “would require advanced AI applications and thousands of drones,” but he noted that “the US is actively working on this approach.”

Lu said the use of AI is intended to allow a few people to control hundreds or even thousands of drones. “However, the implementation of such a strategy in the near future is unlikely.”

Taiwanese Defense Minister Wellington Koo acknowledged that Taiwan does not have enough drones to fully support the U.S. “Hellscape” strategy, and said increasing the number of UAVs and further strategic coordination with the U.S. are “indispensable steps.”

“The military will continue to acquire various types of drones through multiple channels to quickly build combat capabilities for defense operations,” he said.