Does Fred VanVleet have a future with the Houston Rockets?

When fans see an NBA contract, they tend to have a knee-jerk reaction.

Who can blame them? These guys make more money than most of us would see in several lifetimes. They earn huge sums of money which provoke visceral reactions. It’s easy to conclude, “It’s too much.”

A lot of people said this when the Houston Rockets signed Fred VanVleet. At $40-45 million per year, VanVleet’s deal is certainly lucrative.

Yet it is also intelligently structured. It feels like VanVleet just arrived in Houston, but next season will be his guaranteed last year with the team. Ahead of the 2025-26 season, VanVleet’s deal includes a player option.

What should the Rockets do with it?

As with any decision, it depends on the other choices that are made.

By the end of next summer, the Rockets will have traded or extended Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun. For simplicity’s sake, let’s assume both are extended to the tune of $35 million per year.

Add those deals to VanVleet and Brooks’ contract, and we get $134 million. That’s a lot of space between four players. Fortunately, the Rockets will have several players on rookie contracts. They should be able to temporarily fill out the rest of their roster.

The key word is “temporarily”. This coming summer, Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason will need new contracts. If the Rockets pick up VanVleet’s option, he will enjoy unrestricted free agency at the same time.

What happens then?

VanVleet’s next deal won’t be in the $40 million range.

It will still be substantial. Let’s assume VanVleet makes between $25 million and $30 million on his next contract.

This salary will not be conducive to building a core of young people. In all likelihood, VanVleet will be a stepping stone for the Rockets. He is a transition player. VanVleet is here to pass on his wealth of knowledge and move forward.

Unless the Rockets pivot. If they end up trading for a superstar, they could move away from the youth movement altogether. With his ability to space the floor and defend, VanVleet will complement anyone he recruits.

In other words, its future is unclear. The Rockets are going to have some cap issues to navigate no matter what. They probably won’t be able to keep all of the “core 6” members anyway. Still, assuming they don’t make a blockbuster deal for a top-10 player, it’s likely the Rockets will pick up VanVleet’s team option, roster his replacement, and let him go afterward.

Rest assured, fans will react accordingly.