Texas and Louisiana on alert due to torrential tropical rains

Last week, a tropical rainstorm brought heavy rainfall to parts of Florida. This week, AccuWeather’s hurricane experts are monitoring tropical development in three different areas in the Atlantic Basin, all of which have the potential to bring tropical impacts to the United States.

The first and most concerning location for tropical activity is the Bay of Campeche, which AccuWeather designated as a high-risk area Thursday afternoon. Since then, AccuWeather experts have highlighted two more zones near the bear-watching zone in the southern U.S. this week. It’s possible that one of these zones could strengthen into Alberto and become the first named storm of the season.

AccuWeather’s hurricane experts continue to warn of a high probability of hurricane formation in the western Gulf of Mexico in the coming days.

“The very warm waters in this area of ​​the Gulf, along with the low wind shear, will make this a favorable environment for the formation of a tropical system,” said Dan Pydynowski, AccuWeather’s senior meteorologist, of the tropical potential.

Because of these factors, a broad, swirling area of ​​clouds and rain is expected to become more prominent in this area early this week, and may even develop into a tropical depression or storm. If it were to attain tropical storm status with sustained winds of 39 mph or more, it could be named Alberto.

However, limited time over water and proximity to land limit a tropical system’s potential to intensify quickly. And just like last week’s tropical rainstorm that inundated parts of Florida, wind gusts of 39 mph aren’t necessary for a storm to have major impacts.

“Whether or not a more structured tropical system develops in the western Gulf of Mexico, a plume of rich, deep tropical moisture is expected to move into Texas and Louisiana by mid-week,” Pydynowski explained.

Rain is expected along the Interstate 10 corridor from New Orleans to Houston Monday morning, as downpours could slow traffic, reduce visibility and cause flooding. The rain is expected to continue through Wednesday before some of the heavier downpours move north into the Mississippi Valley and west into more parts of Texas.

The abundant supply of tropical moisture could cause precipitation amounts to increase quickly, with over 6 inches of rain possible in parts of the Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 30 inches is possible in the hardest-hit areas, which may result in road closures.

The Houston metropolitan area has already received over 6 inches of rain in the first half of June, which is fairly typical for the entire month. This new round of heavy rains in the already drenched area could bring renewed flooding to southeast Texas.

Other areas along the Gulf Coast could use the rain. Brownsville, Texas, has had just 0.17 inches of rain so far in June, 14% of the historical average. New Orleans has only received 10% of its monthly rainfall in the first 15 days of June. In these areas, the lack of recent rain could leave the ground so dry that flash flooding could occur during heavier downpours.

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Due to this tropical rain wave, it cannot be ruled out that another tropical system could form near the Mexican Yucatan Peninsula at the end of the week.

“With warm water and low shear still present in the southern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean next weekend, there may be another opportunity for tropical development,” Pydynowski warned.

Depending on wind patterns in the atmosphere, moisture from this area may again reach the Gulf Coast during the last week of June. With rain expected in the coming week, the risk of localized flooding may increase.

A tropical system could develop in another area by midweek, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.

“This appears to be a fast-moving and compact low pressure system that will move westward into northeast Florida or perhaps as far north as southeast Georgia on Thursday,” Pydynowski said.

A stronger storm could bring gusty winds, especially in coastal areas. But even a less organized storm would bring rough surf and downpours from the northern Bahamas to the southeastern Atlantic coast.

Heavy tropical rains could affect some of the same areas drenched by last week’s tropical rainstorm. The highest rainfall amounts are unlikely to fall north of Miami, where over 11 inches (28 cm) of rain fell, and in the city of Aventura, where 20 inches (50 cm) of rain fell. Instead, locations from Melbourne, Florida, to Charleston, South Carolina, could be more at risk from the heavy rains.

The zone currently expected to receive the heaviest rainfall has seen very little rain so far this month, with only 0.64 inches (1.6 mm) of rainfall reported in Jacksonville, Florida.

Meteorologists will continue to monitor the development potential of all three areas throughout the week.

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