Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Betting Picks and Preview

Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Details

• Date: June 16, 2024
• Place: Minute Maid Park
• Starting pitchers:
  • Kenta Maeda – Tigers
  • Eric Lauer – Astros

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Win Odds

The implied winning percentage in sports betting represents the probability of an outcome suggested by the betting odds. It is a way for bettors to assess the probability of an event happening based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Winning Percentage, also known as Projected Win Probability, is an estimate made by ATS.io to determine the likelihood of a team winning a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are scheduled to host the Detroit Tigers at Minute Maid Park on June 16, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing American League game. The Astros, who currently hold a 32-39 record, are having a subpar season and are coming off a lopsided 13-5 loss to these same Tigers on June 15. With the Tigers’ 34-36 record, they are performing at an average level this season.

Eric Lauer will man the mound for the Astros, sporting a left arm that has struggled this year. According to Power Rankings at Advanced Stats, Lauer is ranked 316th out of approximately 350 starting pitchers, making him one of the worst in MLB. His last start was disastrous, allowing eight earned runs in four innings. However, he plans to throw 5.2 innings today, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out 4.8 batters on average.

Opposite him, Kenta Maeda for the Tigers. Maeda’s season was below average, with a 5.89 ERA and a 2-2 win/loss record in 10 starts. Despite his struggles, his xFIP of 4.84 suggests some bad luck, indicating potential for performance improvement. Maeda projects to match Lauer with 5.2 innings pitched, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out 4.4 batters on average.

Offensively, the Astros have been strong, ranking 6th overall in the MLB. They lead the league in team batting average and are 4th in team home runs. Yordan Alvarez was their standout hitter, with a .287 batting average and 14 home runs. Over the past week, Jose Altuve has been particularly hot, hitting .375 with a .983 OPS.

On the other hand, the Tigers’ offense ranks 24th in MLB. Riley Greene has been a bright spot, hitting .836 OPS with 14 homers this season. He was on fire last week, hitting .407 with a 1.337 OPS.

THE BAT This should be a close game, with both teams expected to score around 4.6 points. Given the Astros’ superior offensive firepower and Maeda’s flyball tendencies, Houston might have the edge in this contest.

Quick takes on the Detroit Tigers:

Because flyball hitters hold a considerable advantage over groundball throwers, Kenta Maeda and his underlying GB% of 38.8% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough spot in this matchup facing to 2 opposing British batters.

• This is primarily due to the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the trajectory of the pitch, and it can lead to decreased performance in all categories and hidden value that few people consider.

Riley Greene might have the upper hand against every reliever all game, as the Houston Astros bullpen only has one RP from the same player.

• Hitters perform worse against same-handed pitchers (i.e. right-handed vs. right-handed), and being able to avoid these matchups against the bullpen improves performance and creates a hidden advantage.

The Detroit Tigers’ bats jointly rank 24th in Major League Baseball for power since the start of last season, judging by their 91.7 mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder these flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick takes on the Houston Astros:

Eric Lauer has a great reverse platoon split and has the advantage of facing 8 opposing hitters in this game.

• A pitcher with an inverted platoon distribution will perform better against opposing hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will perform better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against multiple hitters can have a huge impact on how successful or difficult a pitcher is on a given day.

Extreme groundball hitters like Victor Caratini generally hit better against extreme flyball throwers like Kenta Maeda.

• It mostly has to do with how the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the trajectory of the pitch, and it can create improved performance in all categories and hidden value that few people consider.

Jose Altuve hits many of his flyballs (41.1% – 99th percentile) and prepares very well considering he will be hitting them toward the 2nd shallowest LF fences in the game in today’s game.

• This player’s skillset fits particularly well with the park he’s in today, which can lead to better-than-usual performances.

Gaming Trends

• The Houston Astros have reached Game Total Under in 30 of their last 49 games (+10.20 units / 19% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have reached Game Total Over in 20 of their last 28 games (+10.95 units / 35% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 16 games (+16.50 units / 103% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final score: Detroit Tigers 4.58 vs. Houston Astros 4.64

For more on today’s game, check out the full stats, betting odds and trends below. Be sure to check out all of our free MLB picks here.