Several inches of rain likely in Houston this week. Here’s when.

A large area of ​​low pressure develops in the western Gulf of Mexico and tropical moisture begins to form. The National Hurricane Center monitors this area for any potential tropical developments, giving the region a 60% chance of developing into at least one tropical depression.

Whether it strengthens into a tropical depression or remains disorganized, the overall impacts likely won’t change much for Southeast Texas. Heavy rain is expected from Monday and will continue until mid-week. Here’s how the next few days will unfold.

Before the tropical humidity arrives, Sunday is shaping up to be a hot, humid and mostly dry day in Southeast Texas. Early morning temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 70s, then rise steadily throughout the day under mostly sunny skies. Houston will hit the 90 degree mark just after noon, highs in the 90s.

Humidity levels will be high, which will have several different impacts. First, heat index values ​​will reach 100-103 degrees during the afternoon. Second, it will contribute to the development of a few isolated thunderstorms throughout Southeast Texas, especially along the coast.

The slight chance of rain is no reason to cancel Father’s Day plans. Most of the region will eventually stay dry, but Houston will have about a 20-30% chance of a quick tropical downpour in the afternoon or evening.

Monday: Scattered tropical rains are expected across southeast Texas. It is not expected to rain all day, but intermittent showers and thunderstorms, some of which could lead to heavy downpours at times, are expected.

Temperatures will also drop due to increased chances of rain and cloud cover. High temperatures are expected in the mid to late 80s, while low temperatures range from the mid to late 70s.

Tuesday evening and Wednesday: Potentially the heaviest rain of the week will occur during this time, as a deep surge of tropical moisture is expected to hit the coasts. Heavy rain could be constant for several hours, leading to flash flooding in parts of Southeast Texas. Wind gusts could also reach 30 to 40 mph.

Thursday and Friday: Rain chances will begin to diminish as the majority of tropical moisture is expected to move westward. However, scattered and persistent showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the end of the week.

Throughout the week, the highest precipitation totals are expected to be near the coast. Galveston could see 5 to 8 inches of rain by the end of the week.

As you move inland, expected precipitation totals decrease. Nonetheless, heavy rain is expected along the Interstate 10 corridor, with 4 to 7 inches currently forecast in Houston. Totals will be lower to the north, with 2 to 4 inches of rain expected in cities like Huntsville and College Station.

As is typically the case with tropical systems, these forecast rainfall totals could change significantly depending on the strength and movement of the tropical low pressure system. Be sure to stay tuned for ongoing coverage and daily forecasts at houstonchronicle.com/weather.