The French left rises from the dead

Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron reacted to his party’s devastating defeat in the European Parliament elections by impulsively dissolving the French National Assembly. Macron boastfully declared that the French people must decide what kind of country they want.

Commentators from across the political spectrum denounced Macron’s arrogance and narcissism. By voting for Marine Le Pen’s party, French voters were rejecting Macron, not the Republic. How could he possibly think that his boastful words would persuade them to change their loyalties? Le Pen’s Rassemblement National would likely win the most seats; her protégé, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, would be appointed prime minister; and Macron would be a “lame duck” for the remaining three years of his term, governing in a coalition with the far right.

But then something completely unexpected happened. Macron’s move prompted the disheartened French left – Socialists, Communists, Greens – to put aside their differences and decide to run with a common program as the New Popular Front. It now looks as though the left could appear more united in the new elections from June 30 to July 7 than at any time since the presidency of François Mitterrand, whose first government in 1981 included both Socialists and Communists.

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For these stars to align, a number of conditions were necessary. The far-left politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a highly polarizing figure, had to go. And the Socialists, who were almost crushed in the last parliamentary elections, had to find an attractive new leader. As our colleague Harold Meyerson reported, they have succeeded in doing so with the charismatic Raphaël Glucksmann.

While it is still early, polls show that Le Pen’s party is likely to win 30 or even 40 percent of the seats in the National Assembly. The left will come in second with at least 30 percent. Macron’s party will get 20 percent or more, and smaller parties will get the rest. As icing on the cake, Macron’s move has divided the neo-Gaullist right after Republican leader Eric Ciotti called for an alliance with Le Pen.

All this means that even if Le Pen’s party gains votes, it will not get enough seats to provide the prime minister. Then it will be the left’s turn to try.

The left and Macron’s party will likely win enough seats to form a governing coalition. Expect a long tussle over whether the prime minister will come from the left coalition or from Macron’s decimated ranks, but the arithmetic favors the left.

Macron is not a big fan of the left, but is far more hostile to Le Pen, so it is increasingly likely that the next French government could consist of a left-led coalition.

It would be far too much for Macron to conclude that he was mad as a fox when he called for new elections. A coalition government with a united left was not the outcome Macron was aiming for. But it could be the outcome. And that would also position a left-wing candidate as an alternative to Le Pen’s party in the 2027 presidential election.

The left only has three more weeks to stay united. As anyone who follows French (or left) politics knows only too well, that’s an eternity. A united left could still fall apart over ideological or personal differences. But for now, the resurgence of the right and the collapse of the center could herald a welcome period of progressive leadership in France.