6 team stats that sum up the Atlanta Braves’ season so far

The Braves have been going through a rough patch for a while now, but with a 36-30 record, you might not know it. Truth be told, the Braves lost some games they should have won and struggled against teams they should have defeated. Even though it happens to every team, the Braves’ issues are quite concerning.

The lack of offense and inconsistency in their starting rotation warrants at least some concern. Perhaps it’s the high expectations we carry as baseball fans with memories of last year that highlight the perceived insurmountable underperformance of a good team, but behind the curtain there is still championship potential. Yes, the Braves have problems, but the season is far from over.

There’s no real need to remind the baseball world that the Braves’ record is still very good. But there is a huge disconnect when we feel like this winning team is powerless to win certain games. Why is it? Even in the most puzzling puzzles, there is a method to the madness. A dive into some relevant Braves stats can sum up their season pretty well.

To begin, let’s look at the offense. The Braves sport a fantastic 6.3 barrel percentage (Brls/PA%) as a team that has them ranked fourth in MLB in barrels. Strangely, this does not translate into a higher number of points scored. The Braves are currently averaging 4.32 runs per game. That puts them 16th in baseball in runs per game.

As it stands, this figure is neither very good nor terrible, but not good. This should worry any team with playoff ambitions like the Braves. One stat that could explain the lack of runs despite the high barrel count is on-base percentage, for which the Braves have posted an OBP of .309 so far. This puts them 16th in the MLB in on-base percentage, which is also not good. What’s worse is that the Braves are 21st in runners left on base per game (1st being fewest runners left on base, 30th being most) with 14.65 on average.

This is partly due to the Braves’ high strikeout rate. On average, the Braves accumulate 8.66 K per game, which places them 20th in MLB (again, 1st being the fewest K per game, 30th being the most). In both runners left on base and team strikeouts, the Braves trail about 2/3 of the thirty MLB teams.

So the lack of runners on base combined with their inability to get runners across home plate when they do has cost them dearly this season. Additionally, these numbers don’t fully take into account Ronald Acuna Jr.’s injury since he has played most of their games so far this year.

Losing a leadoff hitter with Acuna’s ability to produce runs should prove detrimental to the team’s productivity. But the promising story here is the Braves pitching staff. While it’s not all sunshine and roses, there’s a lot to love here.

Before analyzing the Braves pitching staff stats, let’s first look at each rotation spot occupied by a consistent starter.

When Fried, Lopez and Sale take the mound, the Braves win many games. When Morton and the various fifth starters take the mound, the Braves naturally have a little more trouble. Part of the reason Fried and Sale have contributed so much to the win column in addition to excellent pitching performances is that they often go deep in games while sparing the bullpen any work.

Most of the time when Fried and Sale take the mound, it doesn’t take much from the offense to win. This is also why Lopez and Morton, although currently winning pitchers, have had less success in the game, resulting in wins.

The point here is not to tear down the bullpen that has performed well at times despite dealing with significant reliever injuries and enduring periods of inconsistency, but to highlight what has hampered the Braves. First and foremost, one of the biggest problems the Braves face is the lack of a reliable 5th starter.

To date, the Braves have a 3.69 ERA as a team, ranking 8th in MLB. Even if the Braves don’t acquire a star pitcher to fill the 5th spot, a decent arm that can eat up innings while throwing quality outs can do wonders for them. Despite this, the current pitching staff represents a big improvement over the Braves team that pitched to a 4.14 ERA last year.

There are many areas where the Braves can improve. The noisy offense we saw last year was hampered by injuries and subpar production. That said, the percentage of barrels remains very encouraging. If the Braves focus on grinding bats, reducing strikeouts, and getting on base in every way possible, we could see the runs per game number increase significantly.

Even with their struggles, there’s still plenty to like about the Braves. If the fifth spot in the rotation is filled by a good arm, it will be very interesting to see what happens with the Braves’ record and how any success they achieve in the regular season translates to the postseason.