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Houston Astros MLB Trade Deadline Primer: Top 3 Storylines to Watch

Theo

A week ago, Dana Brown redoubled his boldness by announcing a trade deadline. The second-year Houston Astros general manager said he would be a buyer while reiterating, “I don’t see any scenario where we would be sellers.” »

Expecting Brown to say anything else is insane. He needs to project confidence and positivity, even if this season has produced so little of it.

Houston’s mediocre start puts it in an unusual situation as the sport begins to survey buyers and sellers. The club falls somewhere in between, even if Brown doesn’t want to admit it. With seven weeks until the July 30 deadline, here are three storylines to watch as the Astros evaluate their next move.

Who is in charge?

Most of the Astros’ major moves over the past two seasons have been about answering that question. In April, Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson may have shed some light during an appearance on the New York Post Baseball Podcast. Jackson said there are “four or five people who make the decisions with the Astros.”

Jackson, who serves as a special advisor to owner Jim Crane, named fellow advisors Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell to the group. Brown was never mentioned by name, although Jackson referred to “our general manager” when explaining why the team did not sign free agent starter Blake Snell.

Jackson’s presence around the club has increased in recent weeks, including the last two road trips. Bagwell’s fingerprints remain on Houston’s active roster, which still includes first baseman José Abreu, whom Bagwell helped recruit two winters ago in the absence of a general manager.

Now that Houston has one, it’s worth asking whether Brown has the autonomy to handle the trade deadline as he sees fit. Crane has inserted himself heavily over the last two deadlines, first teaming up with former manager Dusty Baker to veto an agreed-upon trade for Willson Contreras in 2022 before engineering a reunion with Justin Verlander last August .

Crane is unlikely to take a completely hands-off approach, but most of Brown’s public comments are consistent with Crane’s philosophy. He’s not the type of owner willing to concede, and three years ago he promised his fans that “while I’m here, the window will always be open.”

How much will Crane increase payroll?

Crane already has the largest payroll in franchise history and is able to pay the tax on the competitive balance for the first time in his tenure as owner. To make meaningful additions to this club, he may need to venture further into uncharted territory.

According to Cot’s Contracts, the Astros have a competitive tax payroll of $253,638,249, more than $16 million above the first threshold of $237 million. Houston is within $4 million of the next threshold of $257 million.

That would result in a surcharge of at least 12 percent on the 20 percent tax Crane already pays. Crane has already exceeded the first competitive balance tax once before, in 2020, but the Astros did not have to pay penalties due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

If the Astros are serious buyers, their lack of high-end prospect capital could force Crane to accept larger contracts from teams looking to cut salaries, putting the owner in a difficult situation he has not faced since purchasing the club in 2011.

Crane could order his baseball operations department to reduce payroll before the deadline, but that will be difficult. Abreu’s three-year, $58.5 million contract is irremovable. Finding a club to take on Crane’s $34.5 million overpayment to reliever Rafael Montero over three years will also be difficult.

The fact that Montero is the team’s fourth-best reliever makes his purchase somewhat questionable, although Houston must consider the post-All Star returns of Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia. Adding them to the starting rotation and pushing existing starters to the bullpen could offset any potential deadline subtraction.

In that vein, another potential scenario involves parting ways with veteran setup man Ryan Pressly, who the team demoted this winter by signing Josh Hader. Pressly posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over his first 27 appearances, but he is one of the unluckiest pitchers in the sport, with an expected batting average of 2.63 FIP, .417 BABIP and .244.

Relievers are the most sought-after currency at every deadline and the one with the playoff numbers that Pressly possesses should bring in a nice haul. Pressly hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last 22 2/3 innings in the postseason. Teams have a .345 OPS against him during that time.

Pressly is making $14 million this season and is projected to make $14 million more in 2025 if he plays in 50 games this year. Pressly’s contract contains a no-trade clause, but it’s worth wondering if he would consider waiving it to deal elsewhere. Having Hader and Bryan Abreu would also give Houston a threatening back end from the bullpen throughout the 2026 season.

Will this team play like they’re worth going all-in?

Timelines during Crane’s ownership period were dominated by “all-in” moves. The club acquired Verlander in 2017 and 2023, landed Zack Greinke from Arizona in 2019 and had deals to sign Bryce Harper in 2018 and Contreras in 2023 that fell through.

Whether this club deserves such a splash remains a mystery. The team woke up Tuesday seven games under .500, 7 1/2 games behind the Seattle Mariners in the American League West and with a 35.6 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs .

Starting with Tuesday’s game against the San Francisco Giants, the Astros will play 16 of their next 19 games against teams that entered the day at .500 or lower.

How Houston performs may determine how well the “four or five people who make decisions with the Astros” meet the trade deadline.

Brown insisted there was “no scenario” in which Houston would sell, but if the club falters during this soft stretch of its schedule, it would be a dereliction of duty not to consider changing course and shopping impending free agent Alex Bregman while listening. to potential packages that Kyle Tucker or Framber Valdez could bring.

If the Astros create a resurgence, return to serious playoff contention and act as buyers, the team’s needs are obvious: a starting pitcher to complement an injury-ravaged rotation and a first baseman to compensate for Abreu’s continued decline.

The potential availability of Pete Alonso will spark the most intense speculation – and would be the type of decision Crane has been inclined to oversee. Alonso’s powerful right-handed swing is a good fit for the Crawford Boxes at Minute Maid Park and his impending free agency will make him a bit more accessible as a rental for a Houston team without much prospect capital.

(Top photo of Houston Astros owner Jim Crane: Elsa/Getty Images)

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