The Braves head to Baltimore to try to figure things out against a great Orioles team

The Atlanta Braves will make their final stop of a three-city road trip on Tuesday when they begin a three-game series against the Baltimore Orioles. It’s been tough sledding for the Braves lately, as they split two games in Boston to start the trip, but then lost three of four to the Washington Nationals for the second time this season. Atlanta is off to a 19-9 start, but is just 16-19 since May 1.

Even though the starting pitcher performed despite the loss of Spencer Strider, the offense just didn’t click. Atlanta entered Monday’s off day ranked 18th in runs scored and tied for 17th in home runs. They still rank 10th in batting average with runners in scoring position, but have been in the bottom third of that category since early May. Atlanta was 5-for-24 with runners in scoring position in the four games at Washington and that number was buoyed a bit by a 3-for-7 performance on Sunday. The Braves are tied with the Orioles for the major league lead in average exit velocity and are second in the majors in hard hit rate, but that hasn’t translated into any significant results. They have MLB’s biggest xwOBA underperformance since May 1, which is a big part of their record — they just don’t hit well enough offensively to overcome MLB’s worst luck during that span.

Marcell Ozuna leads the National League with 18 home runs and 55 RBIs, but has received little help from the rest of the roster. Austin Riley has an 86 wRC+ for the season and is 9-for-49 with two doubles in 13 games since missing two weeks with soreness in his side. His line would be much better if he hadn’t had eight outs, which is a top 20 in MLB, even though he’s missed about a fifth of the season so far. Michael Harris has an 83 wRC+ for the season and also has a huge xwOBA underachievement. Neither Riley nor Harris actually have a particularly good xwOBA, but they also don’t deserve the horrible results they’ve had. Adam Duvall is 6-for-46 with 18 strikeouts since joining the roster every day after Ronald Acuña Jr’s injury…and is, say it with me, a giant underachiever in xwOBA also. Since May 1, Orlando Arcia has hit .192/.218/.344 with a 53 wRC+.

You see the picture. It’s a lot of ugliness. At some point it will probably get less ugly, and I hope it’s sooner rather than later.

As for the Orioles, well, they’re part of MLB’s current Fab Five – teams with a winning percentage above .600. They won 101 games last year and are on pace to win 107 this year. They’ve also been remarkably consistent, going from 19th to 10th in April, 17th to 9th in May, and 7th to 3rd so far in June. After losing three series in April, they have lost just one since – a sweep at the hands of the Cardinals – and are coming off a four-game sweep of the Rays. Yet they trail the Yankees by two games in the AL East.

In terms of performance, well, this isn’t your “outperforming all their peripherals” Orioles team of old. These guys are third in wRC+, fourth in position player fWAR, and third in xwOBA. They are also third in pitchers fWAR, with both the second rotation and a top ten reliever. You could say their pitching staff’s xFIP- is pretty pedestrian (95), but that’s really the extent of how you can verbally slander them.

Gunnar Henderson already owns a 4.1 fWAR, combining well-above-average shortstop defense with a wOBA and xwOBA in the .400 range. The combination of him, Jordan Westburg and Adley Rutschman gives the Orioles the new hotness of young baseball cores. Even their actors perform incredibly well; Cedric Mullins II and backup catcher James McCann have been horrible, but even they can’t stop the team’s momentum. In terms of pitching, the trio of Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez has been excellent on their own and nearly unbeatable when combined with their lineup. The bullpen also had no trouble overcoming what was a terrible start for Yennier Cano.

Braves-Orioles was a really exciting series last year (which the Braves ended up winning thanks to some huge late hits), but this one could quickly turn sour if the Braves’ fortunes don’t reverse immediately.

Tuesday, June 11, 6:35 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)

Max Fried (12 GS, 73.2 IP, 23.1 K%, 7.6 BB%, 2.93 ERA, 3.23 FIP)

The Braves started Hurston Waldrep on Sunday to give the rest of the rotation an extra day of rest, and so Max Fried will get six days off from his last start when he takes the mound in the series opener on Tuesday. Fried has reestablished himself as one of the best pitchers in the game after having a rough start to the season. He set a new career high with 13 strikeouts and allowed two earned runs in seven innings in his final start against the Red Sox. Fried has a 1.83 ERA and 3.05 FIP over his last 10 starts combined, and has been particularly dominant in his last three tries, with a combined K/BB ratio of 28/2 (all Braves win).

Albert Suarez (13 G, 6 GS, 39.1 IP, 21.0 K%, 7.0 BB%, 1.83 ERA, 2.72 FIP)

Injuries in Baltimore’s rotation forced right-hander Albert Suarez back into the starting lineup, where he flourished. Tuesday will be his fourth start since returning to the rotation on May 25. After spending two years in the KBO, Suarez pitched very well as a swingman. He started the season in the rotation and had a 61/71/93 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) line in three starts, and a 50/63/98 line in his last three starts. If there’s a concern, it’s that he has an incredibly low HR/FB ratio so far that could lead to regression, but in reality his seasonal xFIP- is 100, so it’s not not even that worrying.

Suarez had a 4/1 K/BB ratio with two runs in five innings last time out against the Blue Jays, in what appears to be quite a wild card outing for him.

Wednesday, June 12, 6:35 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)

Spencer Schwellenbach (2 GS, 9.2 IP, 20.0 K%, 6.7 BB%, 8.38 ERA, 5.22 FIP)

Spencer Schwellenbach will make his third start of the season in Wednesday’s game. Schwellenbach got off to a promising start, allowing three runs and striking out five in five innings against the Nationals. He held Washington scoreless through the first four before Lane Thomas scored him for a three-run homer in the fifth in a very clear case of a young arm getting knocked out by time from the order penalty . Things didn’t go as well in his next start in Boston, as he was hit hard for seven hits and six runs in 4 2/3 innings. Schwellenbach pounded the strike zone in his first two starts, but struggled to put away hitters. Training Baltimore will be his biggest challenge yet.

Cade Povich (1 GS, 5.1 IP, 8.0 K%, 16.0 BB%, 10.13 ERA, 7.09 FIP)

Rookie left-hander Cade Povich will make his second career start in Wednesday’s game against Schwellenbach. Povich is the Orioles’ 8th best prospect according to Baseball America. He made his major league debut on June 6 in Toronto and allowed five hits, four walks and six runs in 5 1/3 innings. Povich had a 3.18 ERA, 3.22 FIP and 32.5% strikeout rate in 11 starts at Triple-A before his promotion. He struck out only two batters in his major league debut.

Thursday, June 13, 1:05 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)

Reynaldo López (11 GS, 63.1 IP, 24.8 K%, 8.4 BB%, 1.85 ERA, 3.01 FIP)

Reynaldo López will start for the Braves in the series finale on Thursday. He too will benefit from six days of rest. He has logged 63 1/3 innings in his first 11 starts and will likely surpass last season’s total of 66 innings in Thursday’s start. He went six innings in his last start against Washington, allowing two runs and seven strikeouts. Both of those runs came on two solo homers the third time around and “helped” pull his FIP toward his xFIP; before this start, Lopez had a huge gap due to a very low HR/FB rate.

Lopez has totaled 15 strikeouts in his last two starts combined after a four-start stretch where he managed just 16 strikeouts total.

Cole Irvin (12 G, 10 GS, 62.2 IP, 16.7 K%, 4.7 BB%, 2.87 ERA, 3.65 FIP)

Left-hander Cole Irvin will start for the Orioles on Thursday. Irvin has done a good job soaking up innings for the Orioles this season and, like many of his teammates, he has really reached new heights with a low HR/FB. He allowed eight hits but only two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in his last start against the Rays, and allowed two or fewer earned runs in nine of his last 10 appearances. Irvin hasn’t faced the Braves in a few seasons and hasn’t had much luck in his career. He made two starts in 2022 while with the Athletics and allowed 16 hits and 11 runs in 10 combined innings.

As a contact player, Irvin generally doesn’t walk guys much, and he tends to split his time between outings with barely any walks and strikeouts, and better efforts where he has a handful of punches and zero walks. That said, he’s been a bit of a fighter in his last five outings (74/104/124) compared to the previous seven starts (76/86/96).