What if… Josh Allen was the quarterback of the Jauron and Gailey eras?

A common refrain among the Bills Mafia going into the 2023 NFL season and continuing currently is the feeling that Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott should be replaced. By who? Many don’t seem to care – with the idea that Josh Allen is a generational talent that creates an “easy button” for a head coach.

This got me thinking. What if we connected Josh Allen to the underachieving Bills teams of the past? For these editions, we are doing a rapid fire of all the years that have not been the subject of a full article.

The Dick Jauron era

2006

This season is a great case study in the impact one player can have. The seemingly easiest path to the playoffs in 2006 was chasing Kansas City and the sixth seed. Just two games behind the 7-9 Bills, that doesn’t seem like a tall order. Could Josh Allen have made the team three games better? This would allow us to dream of catching the five-seed New York Jets. Let’s see what games could have been returned.

Buffalo lost by two to the New England Patriots to open the season. They split the series with the Jets, losing by one score in the defeat. They lost by a field goal to the Detroit Lions. One point for the Indianapolis Colts. A field goal for the San Diego Chargers. One point for the Tennessee Titans. That’s six games where a hero ball moment changes the outcome, let alone a complete game from Allen against JP Losman. If the Bills take four, which I think is likely, they are now 11-5 and the top five seed.

It is not unthinkable that one of these games could be the New England Game. In fact, that’s my prediction, which puts the Pats at the same level. This also gives Buffalo the best division record and the fourth seed.

This leads to New England traveling to Buffalo, where I think the Patriots come out on top. This will be my official prediction, but at several points in the playoffs every other team in the AFC showed their vulnerability, just like the Chicago Bears did in the Super Bowl. This season really could have been a “punch your ticket and see what happens” year, and I would say Buffalo was down one player.

2007

This year we had one of the worst offenses we have ever seen, coupled with a defense that, with the label of “bad”, remains the obvious strength of the team. When this team lost, it often lost big. Of their nine losses, only four seem reasonable to think that even Allen is changing. They would need three to tie Tennessee. In this scenario, they win the conference record tiebreaker.

I’m not sure they succeed. If they had, Tennessee would have been the only team they would have beaten in the playoffs, and that’s the team they would have blown out to get there. My official prediction is 9-7 and I miss the playoffs.

2008

Win the division and lose in the Wild Card against the Ravens rather than miss the playoffs

2009 Jauron/Fewell

Dick Jauron had just landed a second contract, which kept him for nine games. After a close loss to New England and a convincing win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Bills were trampled two weeks in a row, which was sort of less embarrassing as the now infamous 6-3 loss to the Cleveland Browns. The following week, Buffalo needed overtime to defeat a Jets team that put up 13 points. After another shaky result, Jauron had a week off to sort things out. A 41-17 loss to the Titans was the final straw.

This is a team I look back on and wonder how we maintained our fandom – which makes it even stranger that I think plugging Josh Allen at the top pays huge dividends. The 2009 Bills had a good defense and an effective running game powered by Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson. The passing game had Lee Evans and Terrel Owens.

I have no doubt the Bills would have won Week 11 (Jacksonville Jaguars), Week 5 (Browns, lol), and Week 1. The latter was Leodis McKelvin. Monday Night Football To grope. Buffalo had the ball at the end with Trent Edwards at quarterback and a field goal capable of securing the victory. I think Allen does. Besides, there were earlier opportunities to bury New England and render the fumble useless. I think it’s likely that the Bills also pick up wins in Weeks 13 and 15 against the Jets and New England in the second round. I’ll put my official prediction on winning the Jets game between these two for a total of four more wins with Josh Allen.

The 6-10 Bills are now 10-6 and push the Patriots to 9-7. This is important because it means Buffalo is the AFC East champion. New England is now tied with four other teams with their record and I will tell you that I don’t care enough about the Wild Card teams this year to determine the tiebreakers. Buffalo would have had a reasonable chance to beat most teams and my prediction would be a loss to the Colts in the AFC Championship. This prediction is a bit more cap-based than others, and I agree that an earlier release shouldn’t be ruled out.

Chan Gailey era

2010

8-8 and still missing the playoffs

2011

It was a tough year to be a mediocre team in the AFC. At 6-10, Buffalo would need eight games to get past the Patriots and their 13-3 record. I say this because, even if Buffalo split with New England, I don’t think even Allen can pull off a second head-to-head tiebreaker win. The next step is the division record. The Pats were 5-1 that year and the Bills were 1-5. Buffalo would need to sweep the Jets and Miami Dolphins to force joint matchups and I haven’t bothered to look at common matchups because I don’t think sweeping the other rivals is happening.

For the Wild Card, the sixth seed was held by the Cincinnati Bengals at 9-7. The easiest game for the Bills to turn around this year was their three-point loss to the Bengals. I think they win this. Losses to the Giants and New York Jets (Week 12) brought Buffalo closer and with the ball late in the game. A game against the Titans was similar.

Buffalo either needs all four of these players to make a run or win three of them – but two have to be against Cincinnati and Tennessee. I already noted that the Bengals reached the playoffs at 9-7. The Titans had a tied overall record and tiebreakers against the Bills. I really don’t like the chances of any of this happening. Buffalo comes in at 9-7 for my official prediction, but their loss to Tennessee keeps them from dancing.

2012

This year hasn’t been any easier for a mediocre AFC team. Buffalo was 6-10 again in 2012. The Patriots were theoretically easier to chase at 12-4, but the Bengals had the worst Wild Card record with 10 wins. Despite a seemingly solid defensive team, that side of the ball unfortunately underperformed. An offense lacking true star power was often fun, but better described as “volatile.”

When it comes to single-game results, a three-point loss to the St. Louis Rams (12-15) stands out as an easy candidate. Likewise, a 13-20 loss to the Colts seems likely. Based on how much time they had left in the game and the score was down, I also really like Allen’s chances in Game 2 against New England.

I have two games as a “maybe”. Like the Patriots game, a one-point loss to the Titans seems pretty easy to reverse, but Buffalo scored 34 in this contest in one of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s “Fitzmagic” performances. Even though the Bills finished the game with the ball, overall it’s hard to say for sure that even Allen is playing better. Like that game, a 12-point loss to the Houston Texans seems like a possible turnaround, but here too, Fitz played very well with the game having one of those weird vibrations of discs stalling just for the sake of stalling.

I think it’s realistic that Buffalo can get four more wins with Josh Allen under center. With the games identified above (take your pick between Houston and Tennessee), the Bills move ahead of the Bengals in conference record. In the Wild Card round, Buffalo would have faced an unimposing Texans unit for a likely victory.

The Buffalo Bills would have then traveled to face the top-seeded Denver Broncos. My official prediction is a loss to a Denver team that lost 35 points in this round to the Baltimore Ravens. This is notable because the Ravens won the Super Bowl this year after going Super Saiyan in the playoffs. Denver pushed them to their limits. If, by some miracle, the Bills had beaten Denver, there’s no way they would have gotten past Baltimore.