Four thoughts on Houston’s pitching staff after José Urquidy and Cristian Javier’s elbow surgeries

HOUSTON — A disastrous dose of finality arrived for the Houston Astros on Wednesday when the club announced that Cristian Javier and José Urquidy would undergo season-ending elbow surgeries, ending a weeklong saga shrouded in secrecy and little details.

General manager Dana Brown did not specify what type of surgery each pitcher will undergo, but acknowledged that Tommy John surgery “is certainly a possibility.”

A league source said Athleticism Tuesday that Javier will undergo Tommy John surgery on Thursday. Another source said a second Tommy John surgery was looming as a distinct possibility for Urquidy, who was scheduled to have his surgery Wednesday.

The extent of either man’s surgery won’t be known until it’s complete, but Houston is preparing to be without both pitchers until at least next July. The news continues a preponderance of pitching injuries that dates back two seasons and raises legitimate questions about the team’s pitching program or its return-to-play procedures.

Houston has now lost four starting pitchers to major elbow surgeries in the past 13 months: Javier, Urquidy, Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. Javier, Urquidy and McCullers all attempted some form of comeback before ultimately requiring a surgical intervention.

Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. underwent surgery last June to repair a torn right flexor tendon and remove a bone spur from his right forearm. (Troy Taormina / USA today)

To call this simply an Astros problem is absurd. Pitchers are collapsing all over baseball. But the number of injuries so close together raises concern. On Wednesday, Brown defended Houston’s pitching philosophy and the work of its athletic training staff, most of which has been intact since 2022.

“The guys are injured. You lose your guys in the rotation. I thought our guys did a heck of a job continuing to hit their shots,” Brown said. “Our guys are doing a good job of that. I don’t think that’s something we do. I just think it’s the young kids who throw hard from a young age. At some point, things happen. You are hurt. It’s part of the game and goes with the territory.

As the Astros begin their journey through this familiar territory, here are four thoughts on where Houston’s pitching staff goes from here.

Astros must avoid repeat of last season

Brown and manager Joe Espada spent most of Wednesday morning celebrating the work of Houston’s rotation, perhaps if only to project optimism on an otherwise gloomy day. And, to be fair, the Astros’ starters entered Wednesday with a 3.60 ERA over their last 23 games. Only eight rotations had a lower one.

Whether success is sustainable is a serious question. The team has five healthy starters on its 40-man roster who have substantial major league experience: Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and Ronel Blanco.

Neither Garcia nor McCullers are expected to return before the All-Star break, meaning those are the five men Houston must rely on for at least two more months.

It is dangerous to assume that all five can stay healthy. Valdez already needed a stint on the injured list this season with what the team described as “left elbow soreness.” Arrighetti suffered a 103.8 mph back injury to his left calf on Tuesday, which limited him to just three rounds. He should make his next start on time, but the sequence demonstrates how quickly non-existent depth can further diminish.

X-rays of Alex Bregman’s hand were negative, he said. Spencer Arrighetti said he’s doing well and hopes to make his next start on time, but he said he hasn’t been able to get a ton of speed behind the ball while trying to throw with a calf contusion in third round.

– Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) June 5, 2024

Neither Arrighetti nor Blanco has pitched more than 125 innings in a professional season. Houston faced a similar situation last season, when rookies Hunter Brown and JP France exceeded their previous career-high workloads out of necessity to help a depleted rotation.

Both pitchers later admitted that fatigue affected them and precipitated the spirals in the second half. Brown had a 6.57 ERA after the All-Star break. France posted a score of 5.84 in August and September. It seems imperative to prevent Blanco and Arrighetti from meeting a similar fate.

“Our job is just to make sure we monitor these guys closely,” Espada said. “We have guys in the bullpen that can give us some middle relief and have done an incredible job. We just have to be smart and balance their health with winning, because to win we need healthy players. We just have to make smart decisions.

Houston’s ‘return to play procedure’ under scrutiny again

In mid-April, Javier spent 18 days on the injured list with what the Astros described as “neck discomfort.” He returned on May 11, made three starts with diminished fastball velocity and landed on the injured list again with “right forearm discomfort” that forced this surgery.

On Wednesday, Brown insisted they were separate injuries, but the franchise’s long history of misleading or incomplete explanations took away the benefit of the doubt.

“When we signed him long-term, he was fine, so we knew something had to happen, so we had him looked at. I think they’re separate issues, but at the end of the day we’re glad I found out what was wrong,” Brown said.

When asked later if he felt like Urquidy had been rushed because of his forearm strain, Brown said no before describing the toll that seven consecutive trips to the ALCS — 97 extra games, by Brown’s calculations — cost Houston’s entire pitching staff.

“It always depends on how the player feels,” Brown said. “If the player feels good, his speed is back and he’s throwing strikes, we’ll go for it. You can only trust what the players tell you.

The Astros’ JP France may have been brought back from a shoulder injury in spring training, general manager Dana Brown said last month. (Kamil Krzaczynski / USA Today)

On May 26, however, Brown said on the team’s pregame radio show that France could have returned from a shoulder injury in spring training. France made five league starts before being optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land, where he is back on the injured list with a shoulder issue.

“When he got hurt in spring training and he had some discomfort, we really pushed to get him back and maybe we rushed him a little bit,” Brown said during the team’s pregame show. “Especially with Verlander out at the same time, we were trying to really plug the holes in that rotation. He felt pretty good so we squeezed him a little bit and he tried to get through it. I think this time we’ll probably be more patient.

Two years ago, after acknowledging missteps in Jake Meyers’ rehabilitation from a shoulder injury, former general manager James Click promised a complete overhaul of the Astros’ “return to play procedure.” . Owner Jim Crane fired Click before it could be completed. Now it is worth asking whether we should see it again.

Urquidy’s Astros career could be over

Best-case scenario, Urquidy won’t return to the major leagues until July 2025, meaning Houston could face a fascinating decision this winter about whether to offer him a contract in his final season before the free agency.

Urquidy is making $3.75 million this season. Salaries can be reduced during the arbitration process, but only by a maximum of 20 percent. But there is precedent here that the salary remains the same. After McCullers missed the entire 2019 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, he and the Astros agreed to a $4.1 million salary for the 2020 season – the same as his salary of 2019.

Assuming health and Dana Brown’s insistence that his team won’t be sellers at the trade deadline, Houston’s 2025 rotation is guaranteed to include McCullers, Valdez, Garcia, Hunter Brown, Blanco and Arrighetti. If Verlander throws 140 innings this season, he will also move back to the top of the rotation.

Javier, who signed a five-year, $64 million contract extension last spring, now appears to be a late addition to this group. Offering Urquidy and allowing him to rehabilitate with the team’s training staff would be a show of good faith for a pitcher who has three World Series wins during his Astros career and is a well-rounded figure. loved by the clubhouse.

The objective of the trade deadline is clear

Dana Brown insisted the team would shop ahead of the July 30 trade deadline. Assuming he’s a man of his word, the second-year general manager needs to shore up the Astros’ ravaged rotation if Houston has any hope of reaching the postseason.

Listening to the list of depth options named by Brown on Wednesday only made it stronger. He never mentioned Blair Henley — the sixth starter on Houston’s 40-man roster — or Eric Lauer, the left-hander with 112 major league starts in Triple A on a minor league contract.

Lauer and Henley would likely be the first calls if Houston needs another starter in the immediate future, but Brown also boasted AJ Blubaugh and Jake Bloss. Bloss made only six starts above High A. Blubaugh made only 10 appearances and pitched 45 innings at Triple A.

(Top photo by Cristian Javier: Troy Taormina / USA Today)