Bills Get Average Hindsight Grade for Von Miller Signing

Hindsight is 20/20 is a cliché for a reason: it’s often accurate. Looking at past events through the lens of the present allows us to know their consequences and ramifications; in other words, we can judge whether a decision was good because we know how it turned out.

However, hindsight can often lead to revisionist history: just because a decision didn’t go as planned doesn’t mean the logic of the original decision wasn’t sound. The Buffalo Bills’ 2022 signing of Von Miller fell victim to revisionism in Bleacher Report’s recent article re-evaluating the 10 biggest free agent signings of the past decade; writer Matt Holder gives the signing an average “C”, noting the recent decline in the passer’s abilities.

“The Bills’ decision to sign a 33-year-old to a six-year, $120 million contract ($45 million guaranteed) was a headache at the time and didn’t pay off,” he said. writes Holder. “Miller got off to a good start in Buffalo, accumulating eight sacks in 11 games, but a torn ACL on Thanksgiving cut his season short and forced him to miss the team’s playoff run.

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“The injury also caused Miller to miss the start of the 2023 campaign as he appeared in 12 games without a start, compiling just three total tackles and no sacks for the first time in his career. Heading into this season and in his mid-30s, the 13-year pro projects to be a costly situational pass rusher.

It’s unfair to call Miller’s initial signing a “headache,” especially when considering the context of the acquisition. Buffalo was months removed from a heartbreaking AFC divisional round loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in which it led with just 13 ticks remaining, with general manager Brandon Beane identifying the lack of elite passing and “closer” to the team. as the biggest obstacle preventing them from getting over the proverbial hump. The team filled that gap by signing the NFL’s all-time active sack leader.

It was a completely wise decision that made complete sense in football. Some questioned the Bills’ decision to give a then-32-year-old a six-year contract, but a quick look at the contract revealed it was a closer commitment. ‘a three-year commitment.

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Buffalo needed an elite defensive end. He signed one of the best passers in NFL history. What’s the “headache” in that?

The move paid off immediately for the Bills, with Miller, as Holder notes, totaling eight sacks in his first 11 games before tearing his ACL midway through the 2022 season. He has yet to regain his former glory, having only three tackles and no sacks in 12 games last year.

The retrospective “C” grade seems fair, but that’s only because of circumstances beyond Miller and the team’s control. To suggest that the team made a mistake when initially signing Miller is to overlook the reality and context of the situation at the time. Holder is correct that Miller now profiles as an expensive situational defender, but his contract is now more palatable than the one he originally signed; he agreed to a pay cut during the 2024 offseason, reworking on an incentive-laden deal with a base salary of $1.5 million. There is potential after the 2024 season.