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The pros and cons of the Houston Rockets selecting Donovan Clingan

The 2024 NBA Draft has a bad reputation. This is considered a weak project.

We don’t know if we believe in the concept of a weak draft in 2024. It’s been a long time since any class managed to produce a superstar player. There are some gems in this version – they’re probably hidden.

This is why high-end role players are considered high-end lottery picks. Typically, a rim-protecting big man with limited offensive capabilities like UConn’s Donovan Clingan is not a top-3 option.

Should the Houston Rockets sign him?

Forget who is on the Rockets roster right now. Let’s talk about Clingan in a vacuum.

He had a Box Plus/Minus (BPM) of 15.0 in 2023-24. He ranked second in the NBA behind Zach Edey (16.8) overall in the NCAA.

You already have a counterpoint. We know. Edey is not considered a future NBA star and he beat out Clingan. Is it possible that size alone predicts more success in college than in the NBA?

Well, any statistic needs to be contextualized. Edey used his extravagant 7’4″, 300 pound frame to dominate offensively in college in a way he probably won’t in the NBA. If he does, he’ll become an all-time steal in the draft.

On the other hand, Clingan did most of his damage on defense. At 7’2″ and 280 pounds, this is more likely to translate to the NBA level. We can safely project that Clingan is a solid defensive anchor, at least.

The argument here is simple. Production at one level generally predicts production at the next level. Even when scrutinizing the nature of Clingan’s production, it seems translatable to the NBA.

Is that enough to recruit him?

He (probably) can’t play with Sengun. He (probably) can’t play with Amen Thompson.

Clingan’s ability to defend in space is also a question mark. Great men can be temperamental. We’ve seen Rudy Gobert (deservedly, in our opinion) win the league’s Defensive Player of the Year award multiple times, only to get left out of playoff games.

This is not a blow to Clingan. The vast majority of NBA players have a flaw to exploit. Still, there are valid questions to ask about drafting a player who can’t play with your best player (Sengun) or arguably your player with the highest ceiling (Thompson) who is likely to be exploited at end of the field, he is supposed to thrive. on.

Why can’t he play with these guys? Well, Clingan is limited offensively. He’s not a shooter, which makes him a problematic partner with Thompson. If he can’t at least survive the changes, he won’t be able to line up with Sengun on both ends of the court.

The Rockets should therefore avoid Clingan.

RIGHT?

If the Rockets keep their pick, our preference is Reed Sheppard – we won’t make any effort to deny that. Still, they could justify capturing Clingan.

This is not a popular observation to make. This has made this particular author a pariah in some circles. We’ll say it anyway: Sengun could be a defensive liability in the playoffs.

Of course, we just said that Clingan might pose the same problems. If he is an elite rim protector with drop coverage, there are fewer projects in which he can succeed. Sengun has trouble falling, and he also struggles in space.

This is not to say that we would only recruit Clingan to replace Sengun. It is worth noting that Clingan hit three points during practice sessions. We know it, we know it – many non-shooting prospects hit threes in a wide-open gym.

Still, Clingan could develop into a competent three-point shooter. It’s not impossible. Additionally, Sengun has shown at least some ability to space the floor. It is more likely that his stroke will improve. As long as either can shoot, the Rockets could form a twin tower lineup with the duo moving forward.

This points to a broader reason to pick Clingan: the future is still unknown for the Rockets. If the Rockets think he’s likely to be the most valuable player on the board, they could take him and work out the details later.

Even in a weak draft, you should target the best player available.