Division Race Reset: Acuña injury and Phillies’ fast start jeopardize Braves’ streak

The Atlanta Braves were already in a bit of a hole in the NL East before receiving the type of news every team dreads – a season-ending injury to their best player.

The torn ACL in Ronald Acuña Jr.’s knee left the Braves reeling early in the week, and perhaps it was no surprise that they lost three of four to Washington before rebounding a bit against the modest Oakland.

Atlanta now trails Philadelphia by 6 1/2 games, and the Braves have their work cut out for them if they want to win a seventh straight NL East title.

Atlanta is still in good shape to make the playoffs – there are six playoff spots in the National League and only five teams above .500 at the moment – ​​but losing Acuña is a blow for a team that already had right-hander Spencer Strider. down with his own season-ending injury. The situation would be easier to manage if the Phillies hadn’t already taken a substantial lead, but at 41-19, Philadelphia has the best record in the National League.

All six divisions are at least three games apart at the top, with FanGraphs favoring the current first-place team to win each. Here is how these races take place:

NL WEST

Favorites: Los Angeles Dodgers (93% chance of winning the division, according to FanGraphs )

Current lead: 6 1/2 games against San Diego

No shock here. Los Angeles was loaded early in the season, and Shohei Ohtani delivered in his first season for the Dodgers despite his inability to pitch. After trading Juan Soto, the Padres are still in a strong playoff presence, but catching Los Angeles is a different kind of challenge.

TO THE EAST

Favorites: New York Yankees (78% chance of winning the division)

Current lead: 3 games against Baltimore

It’s a bit surprising that FanGraphs has the Yankees as the heavy favorite, but New York has the best record in baseball and shows no signs of slowing down. Soto and Aaron Judge each played like an MVP candidate and the pitching was excellent despite the absence of Gerrit Cole. What’s remarkable is that the Yankees and Orioles have already opened up a lot of distance on the rest of this division.

NL CENTER

Favorites: Milwaukee Brewers (71% chance of winning the division)

Current lead: 7 games against St. Louis

The biggest lead currently belongs to the Brewers, who have the second-most runs in baseball behind Philadelphia. Milwaukee lost manager Craig Counsell to the rival Cubs, but Chicago has lost nine of its last 11 games and is now behind the Cardinals in third place.

NL EAST

Favorites: Philadelphia Phillies (66% chance of winning the division)

Current lead: 6 1/2 games against Atlanta

The Phillies have combined their excellent offense with a pitching staff that ranks second in the majors in ERA. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola were known commodities, but Ranger Suarez going 9-1 with a 1.70 ERA is a good example of the type of season he had in Philadelphia.

WEST

Favorites: Seattle Mariners (65% chance to win division)

Current lead: 4 games against Texas

It’s the only division, other than the NL Central, that has just one team above .500, and the big question is who poses the biggest threat to the Mariners. Is it the injury-riddled Rangers or the slow-starting Astros? FanGraphs gives Houston a better chance, but the Astros already have 7 1/2 games to make up against Seattle.

AL Central

Favorites: Cleveland Guardians (47% chance of winning the division)

Current lead: 4 games against Kansas City

Could the oft-maligned AL Central put three teams in the playoffs this year? Well, three of the game’s nine best records reside in this division – a byproduct of the fact that the Chicago White Sox are already 30 games under .500. The Guardians are averaging 5.05 points per game, best in the American League, but FanGraphs considers that a legitimate three-team race.

TRIVIA TIME

Who is the last team, besides the Braves, to win the NL East?

LINE OF THE WEEK

Detroit’s Jack Flaherty allowed one hit in 6 2/3 scoreless innings a 5-0 victory over Boston Thursday evening. He struck out nine.

RETURN OF THE WEEK

The Yankees capped an impressive west road trip with a 7-5 victory in San Francisco on Sunday. New York trailed 5-3 before scoring four runs in the top of the ninth, with Soto’s two-run homer giving the Yankees the lead. New York’s win probability was as low as 5.8% in the eighth, according to Baseball Savant.

TRIVIA ANSWER

The Washington Nationals, in 2017.

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