Would Russia really attack Ukraine? – DW – July 5th, 2024

On Monday, a day before Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent inauguration, the Russian Defense Ministry announced plans for tactical nuclear weapons maneuvers near the Ukrainian border in the “near future.” It would be the first time such exercises would be conducted since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The exercises will be carried out by missile units of the Southern Military District of Air Defense with the participation of air and naval forces and with the aim of “increasing the readiness of non-strategic nuclear forces,” the ministry said.

This area includes not only recognized Russian territory, but also Crimea, annexed in 2014, and four Ukrainian regions in the southeast that are partially occupied by Russia.

Nuclear threats from Moscow, criticism in the West

Western officials have repeatedly criticized the Russian leadership for its nuclear threats. Putin has not openly threatened a nuclear strike, although he has warned the West about the possibility of nuclear war in the event of a direct confrontation.

Former Russian President and Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, on the other hand, has openly threatened to use nuclear weapons on several occasions, including again on Monday.

Medvedev also linked the decision to hold tactical nuclear weapons exercises to considerations in the West about sending allied ground troops to Ukraine.

Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov also linked the planned nuclear exercises to statements by Western politicians about a possible deployment of troops in Ukraine, particularly mentioning French President Emmanuel Macron. Peskov spoke of a “new round of escalating tensions.”

What are tactical nuclear weapons?

Tactical nuclear weapons differ from so-called strategic nuclear weapons in that they are less powerful and have a shorter range. They can take the form of artillery, but most often they are ballistic missiles or cruise missiles. They are fired from systems capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads.

Nuclear warheads for surface-to-air missile systems with a range of up to 500 kilometers (311 miles) and sea- or air-launched missile systems with a range of up to 600 kilometers are considered tactical nuclear weapons.

However, there are no clear boundaries for classification. Some sources classify the new Russian Kalibr cruise missile and the Kinzhal hypersonic missile, with a range of up to several thousand kilometers, as tactical nuclear weapons.

A nuclear attack on Ukraine “makes no sense”

The experts interviewed by DW agree that the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine would be highly unlikely and pointless. “From a military perspective, Russia’s use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine makes no sense under any circumstances,” said Pavel Podvig of the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research. Nothing has changed, he added.

In fact, Russia cannot practice attacks during the exercise, only the procedure for using the weapons, said the expert. “This is because non-strategic warheads are typically stored separately from the missiles and aircraft that can fire them,” Podvig said.

Nikolai Sokov from the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation believes that there were never any plans to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine – not even in autumn 2022, when the Russian army withdrew from the Kharkiv and Kherson regions.

Some US media have reported that this could be discussed in Russia, Sokov said. But now the Russian troops are clearly superior to the Ukrainian armed forces in many respects and are conquering more and more areas in eastern Ukraine, said the expert. Kiev even expects Russian attacks to expand, he added.

Nuclear exercises as a warning to the West

Nuclear escalation has been one of the West’s biggest fears since the start of the Russian invasion. Western politicians and experts say that arms deliveries to Ukraine have been slow and measured for precisely this reason.

Mathieu Boulègue from the Wilson Center in the US said Moscow is counting on exactly this. He does not believe that Russia’s planned nuclear exercises are “solely due to France’s attitude.” In his opinion, they are part of the Kremlin’s “constant intimidation and saber rattling.” The aim is to break the West’s resolve to support Ukraine, he argued.

Putin also wants to present himself as a “strong leader,” especially in the run-up to May 9, when Russia celebrates the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany, said Boulègue.

Most experts see this as a warning to the West. “There is nothing good about this political signal, but we should try to take it as soberly as possible,” concluded Podvig.

This article was adapted from the Ukrainian original.