Braves World Series Odds: Can Atlanta win the 2024 World Series without a star outfielder?

The Atlanta Braves won the 2021 World Series against the Houston Astros. It was the franchise’s first World Series victory since defeating Cleveland in 1995 and its first World Series appearance in the 2000s. When the Braves advanced their playoff run down the stretch, they received help up and down the lineup despite the absence of their best hitter.

All-Star outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. tore his right ACL in the team’s penultimate game before the 2021 All-Star Break. Acuna was ruled out for the remainder of the season and hopes of ‘Atlanta in the playoffs looked devastated. The Braves managed to overcome the odds in 2021 without their superstar, and now in 2024 they face a similar situation. Acuna Jr. tore his left ACL against the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 26. He and ace Spencer Strider are now both sidelined for the remainder of the season. Even though they’re missing their best hitter and pitcher, can the Braves recreate that 2021 magic and still win the 2024 World Series?

How did the Braves win in 2021?

Trade Deadline Deals

Most of the time, when we talk about a team’s front office, it is by criticizing the lack of steps to improve a team. When Acuna went down in early July, it was a blow to fans, but general manager and president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos wasted no time getting to work trying to replicate Acuna . It’s like trying to replace Jason Giambi in silver ballthe Braves had a better chance of bringing in some bandages to cover the injury than someone being Acuna 2.0.

Anthopoulos didn’t wait long and traded for outfielder Joc Pederson a few days after his injury. Atlanta then acquired Adam Duvall, Eddie Rosario and Jorge Soler to round out their outfield depth. Pederson hit .249 with seven homers during the remainder of the regular season, but made a splash early in the postseason. He hit two hit home runs in the NLDS, adding another big home run in the NLCS.

Duvall returned to Atlanta after spending the first half of 2021 with the Miami Marlins. He hit just .226 in the 55 regular season games he played with the Braves, but hit 16 home runs with 45 RBIs. Duvall hit .220 in the postseason, but continued to hit for power, including a monstrous first-inning grand slam in Game 5 of the World Series. Duvall was usually platooned with Pederson depending on the opposing starting pitcher’s hand.

The veteran Rosario brought great power to the lineup and made a big difference. He only played in 33 regular season games for Atlanta in 2021, but hit .271 with seven home runs and 16 RBIs. Rosario exploded in the postseason and heated up at just the right time, hitting .383 with three homers and 11 RBIs in 16 games.

Soler slashed .269/.358/.432 in 55 regular season games with the Braves. Similar to other players acquired at the deadline for Atlanta, he had a huge impact in the playoffs. Soler had a poorly timed 10-day stint on the COVID-19 injured list, but returned in time to hit a leadoff home run in Game 1 of the World Series. He added home runs in Games 4 and 6 and was ultimately named World Series MVP for his performance.

Emergency services intensify their efforts

Coming out of the bullpen in the MLB playoffs has to be one of the most stressful things you can do in sports. For Tyler Matzek, however, he thrived. Matzek made 13 appearances, pitching 15.2 innings during the 2021 postseason. He allowed three earned runs and walked four while striking out 24, en route to a 3-0 record with five strikes .

The other part of the Braves’ 1-2 punch was closer Will Smith. The left-hander was 3-7 with a 3.44 ERA during the regular season, but found his groove in the postseason. He pitched 11 scoreless innings in 11 games and was 2-0 with six saves.

Atlanta’s rotation with Max Fried and Charlie Morton was fortunate to be able to feed the ball to reliable relievers out of the bullpen. These relievers usually worked with ample run support or kept the Braves in games until they were able to score enough to earn a victory.

How can the Braves win in 2024?

Odds

The Atlanta Braves entered with the second-best odds to win the 2024 World Series on DraftKings Sportsbook. They are behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers, who saw their chances improve after signing Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in free agency. After a slow start to the 2024 season, Atlanta’s odds were down to +400 as of May 26 and are now already down to +650 following Acuna’s injury.

It doesn’t help the Braves that the Philadelphia Phillies have started the season well. Atlanta was favored to win the NL East at the start of the season, but now the Phillies have overtaken them. Philadelphia sits at -150 to win the division, with the Braves in second at +120.

Atlanta might be lucky that the New York Mets, Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins have all had rough years so far. New York has the third-best winning odds in the East at +15,000. With the recently expanded playoffs, the Braves must either win their division or be among the top three teams in the National League that have not won of division. For now, Atlanta sits in first place in the NL Wild Card after four games against the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres, but that means very little heading into June. The Braves currently have -5,000 odds to make the playoffs even without Acuna.

Business objectives

Can Anthopolous make lightning strike twice? He is an aggressive negotiator and is not afraid to bring back familiar faces. Duvall and reliever Jesse Chavez are both current Braves who have had multiple stints in Atlanta since Anthopolous arrived in 2017. Pederson is currently hitting .303 for the Arizona Diamondbacks on a one-year deal. If the Braves think he can stay hot for the rest of the season, this reunion would make sense. Atlanta is unlikely to make a move for Soler (who signed a three-year deal with the Giants this offseason) or Rosario (with a .174 average for the Washington Nationals), so they’ll have to look elsewhere.

When looking at possible trade targets, the most likely outcome is a player on a short-term contract or who has been very average at the start of the season. Atlanta’s system is in win-now mode, so they don’t have a lot of pieces to put together to acquire players. The Braves traded Vaughn Grissom for Chris Sale in the offseason and Michael Soroka, Jared Shuster, Nicky Lopez, Braden Shewmake and Riley Gowens for left-handed reliever Aaron Bummer. These two moves exhausted most of the team’s top prospects, leaving the farm system top-heavy and thin.

When trying to find a trade target, it’s helpful to look at teams that might sell after a dismal start to the season. Miami has already traded Luis Arraez to the San Diego Padres, and Jazz center fielder Chisholm Jr. could be next. He has two years remaining on his contract and brings some pop and speed to a lineup the Braves love. Chisholm also played outfield, so he could be repurposed as an infielder if a team needed him. He hit .260 with eight homers and 27 RBIs for the Marlins.

The Colorado Rockies also reside at the bottom of the MLB barrel due to injuries and Kris Bryant has seemingly forgotten how to play baseball. His contract would be silly to take on so Atlanta can target center fielder Brenton Doyle who is hitting .263 and has two years left on arbitration.

Help from the agricultural system?

After using so many prospects to bring in veteran players and try to win now, do the Braves have any notable prospects that could come along? Atlanta has two prospects listed in MLB.com’s top 100 prospects. Pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver comes in at #57 and pitcher Hurston Waldrep at #73. Smith-Shawver spent time in the big leagues in 2023, making five starts with a 1-0 record and a 4.26 ERA. Waldrep was the team’s 2023 first-round pick and currently plays for its Double-A affiliate.

Spencer Schwellenbach, 23, is the team’s third prospect and was called up to make his MLB debut. With veteran pitchers like Charlie Morton and Chris Sale on the roster, the Braves will likely need to retain and develop these young arms for the future and should not move them for an outfield rental. Atlanta’s best outfielder is Luis Guanipa (No. 9), but it’s unlikely the 18-year-old is ready and will be called up from the franchise’s rookie-level club all the way to the big leagues.

Infielders David McCabe (Atlanta’s No. 12 prospect), Nacho Alvarez Jr. (No. 6) and Jose Perdomo (No. 7) could be names to watch if a trade is made, but are not players who should be called upon to help replicate Acuna.

Manage it internally

There is always the result that the Braves make a few minor moves but largely stick with what they have. Sure, it hurts to lose the reigning MVP, but Acuna got off to a slow start, hitting .250 with four homers and 15 RBIs in 49 games. He had already stolen 16 bags, but duplicating his stolen bases was low on Atlanta’s priority list.

Austin Riley is expected to come off the injured list soon and should be able to improve on his .232 batting average to start the season. He’s a career .272 hitter, so regression to the mean might already provide a little boost. Jarred Kelenic was acquired this offseason from the Seattle Mariners, and while he has been consistent, if he can settle in, that should also give Atlanta more upside.

The Braves are also without All-Star catcher Sean Murphy, who was injured in the first series of the season. He was recently activated, which should help provide a spark that will allow the Braves to return to their catching tandem of Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud. They probably won’t ruin Marcell Ozuna’s success by putting him back in the outfield, because DH-ing has worked for him. This limits roster flexibility, but for now, the Braves need to focus on creating positive momentum.

Final Thoughts

Heading into the 2024 season, Strider had the best chance to win the NL Cy Young Award, and Acuna had the best chance to win the MVP award. It’s a big blow when both players are sidelined for the rest of the season, because losing your best pitcher and hitter seems insurmountable. Seeing how good the Dodgers, Phillies and New York Yankees are makes the mountain they have to climb to reach the top even steeper.

As of May 29, the Braves had the seventh-best team batting average and seventh-lowest team ERA. Maintaining consistency will be the long-term goal; At this rate, they just need to focus on the playoffs. Once that happens, it’s a whole new ball game as they try to win the 2024 World Series, which they can certainly do without Acuna, just like they did in 2021.