Six regional hosts of the NCAA baseball tournament are on alert in 2024

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Can Wake Forest play the role of regional spoiler in 2024? (Photo by Eddie Kelly/ProLook Photos)

Over the past decade, an average of about six hosts have failed to advance past regionals (last year, there were seven), so which six No. 1 seeds are most likely to pull off an upset this week?

Related: The complete schedule for the 2024 NCAA Tournament can be found here

Arizona

The Wildcats were a surprise host due to their RPI (31), but their other qualities are undeniable. Arizona claimed two Pac-12 titles, won both the regular season and tournament championships, and is 26-8 since March 28. While the selection committee showed great confidence in Arizona by seeding the team 13th in the tournament, it also gave them perhaps the toughest regional draw.

No. 2 seed Dallas Baptist (44-13) won the Conference USA Tournament title and has been ranked in the top 25 for most of the year. No. 3 seed West Virginia finished fourth in the Big 12 rankings and posted a 17-8 record in the regular season after potential first-round draft pick JJ Wetherholt returned from injury in early April. No. 4 seed Grand Canyon is no newcomer to the postseason, posting a 2-1 record against Arizona this spring, including a 24-8 loss in April (though it’s notable that all of those games came during the week). Any of those teams could realistically win in Tucson.

East Carolina

Since the selection committee began seeding all 16 hosts in 2018 (previously, regionals were drawn based on geography to avoid conference matchups), the No. 16 seed overall has won its regional just once – last year, when Alabama swept the Tuscaloosa Regional.

The selection committee appears to be trying to field the best secondary in the region, and this year ECU faces Wake Forest, the preseason No. 1 team and a team that has more stars on the field than any other. We’ll see how both teams handle their starters, but there’s at least a chance that it could be a matchup of projected first-round picks between Trey Yesavage and Chase Burns. Wake has a 13-2 record in games in which Burns starts. Yesavage, if healthy after being hospitalized with a partially collapsed lung last week, is one of the few pitchers who can compete with him. Making matters worse for ECU is that they were 8-7 in May and need to rediscover the momentum they had earlier in the year.

Georgia

There are five SEC hosts, and they probably won’t all win their regional championship, even though they’re all top-eight seeds. The Bulldogs seem the most primed for an upset. Georgia has less tournament experience on its roster than the other SEC hosts and a first-year head coach in Wes Johnson. How will it respond to the pressure of a regional environment? That’s uncertain. Georgia has lost three straight games and will have had 10 days off since losing in the first round of the SEC Tournament. How will that affect the Bulldogs? The break might have been beneficial, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise if they were a little rusty on Friday.

No. 2 UNC Wilmington may be the best program to never win a regional, a distinction it really wants to shake off, and No. 3 Georgia Tech is an in-state rival with a strong offense that would love to end Georgia’s season. No. 4 Army has more tournament experience than any other team in Athens (the Black Knights have won six in a row), has as much mental toughness as any team in the country and has an ace in Justin Lehman (5-3, 2.53) who presents a difficult opponent from the start.

North Carolina

The Tar Heels are 32-2 at Boshamer Stadium this season and are a team I consider to be one of the favorites to win the national championship. So where do they fit on this list? The answer is twofold: 1) That’s how much I believe in LSU right now and 2) UNC isn’t quite as experienced yet.

LSU, the region’s No. 2 seed, stormed into the tournament field 11-3 in May, including a seven-game winning streak that was broken in the SEC Tournament championship game against Tennessee. The Tigers, whom I picked as national champions last season, play like no other in the country and have one of the best 1-2 hitters on the mound in left-hander Gage Jump and right-hander Luke Hollman, as well as an ace in the bullpen in left-hander Griffin Herring. UNC is very talented, but it relies on freshmen at catcher (Luke Stevenson) and at the top of its rotation (Jason DeCaro).

Oklahoma

The Sooners are a bit of an anomaly in college baseball this season. They’re actually better on the road (14-5) than they are at home (18-10). They’re also really good at beating teams worse than them, but not so good at beating teams on their level — they’ve lost series to Oklahoma State, Texas and West Virginia, the teams that finished second, third and fourth in the Big 12 rankings, respectively, and got swept at home by Lamar.

Although Oklahoma is 37-19 overall and won the Big 12 title, it is by no means unbeatable. Duke, the No. 2 seed in Norman, has had ups and downs this season. They just won the ACC Tournament but lost three of their last four series to end the season. Left-hander Jonathan Santucci, a projected first-round pick, is expected to return to the rotation this weekend after missing his last two starts. UConn, the No. 3 seed, is a solid, well-traveled and proven team that will not let the situation get to them in any way. Oral Roberts, the No. 4 seed, is not as good as last year’s College World Series team, but it has that experience and is 1-1 against the Sooners this season. I wouldn’t be surprised by any result in Norman this weekend.

State of Oklahoma

This has more to do with who the Cowboys faced in the Stillwater Regional than their own team. Oklahoma State has won nine of its last 10 games, including a run through the Big 12 tournament. It is also 21-5 this season at O’Brate Stadium.

The problem, however, is the draw. Coming to Stillwater this week are Nebraska, the Big Ten tournament champion with a 21-12 road record, and Florida, the 2023 national runner-up led by All-American Jac Caglianone. No. 4 seed Niagara is basically inexperienced against this type of opponent, having only played two teams this year against a team that made the NCAA Tournament (it finished 1-1 against James Madison). Oklahoma State has lost two straight home regionals, and while I think this year’s version of the Cowboys is better than 2022 and 2023, they’ll still have their hands full.