US Weather Warning! Tornado could pass Kansas City, Wichita and Fort Worth today | Check the states under warning

“Severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern Plains from late afternoon into the night. Some long-lived supercells capable of producing violent tornadoes may occur. Heavy hail and damaging wind gusts are also expected,” the weather report said.

…central/southern plains…

Overall, the outlook changed little.

Update, with the most important change being an eastward expansion of the

Increased Risk/Level 3 over parts of North Texas based on 12z

Strong moisture advection near the ground continues throughout the northwest

TX/South OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and

over time to the north and south of KS. Strong warming during the day

a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep temperature decrease rates at mid-altitude

will produce strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of

The first development of a supercell is expected this afternoon

in northwest Texas, where strong warming is expected to continue throughout the day

erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected

further north along the dry line towards 00z via OK/South-KS,

where rapidly returning moisture enters a well-heated boundary layer

The encounter with an intensifying jet stream at low altitude should lead to a

High-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell

Development will also occur near warm fronts over northern

KS. The biggest uncertainty remains the storm reporting, with 12z

high-resolution guide continues to show a number of solutions. As

The flow at mid-levels is increasing and a shortwave trough is approaching.

extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is

expected to be in force in the high/medium risk areas from

late afternoon through tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes,

very large to huge hail, and significant strong winds remain

A moist air mass at low altitude warms up quickly during the day.

downstream of the ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed up well

into the 80s from 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are

expected to move further southeast within

Environment with moderate shear and northwesterly flow and be able to

strong/potentially destructive gusts and heavy hail. A small

With this outlook, a slight risk/risk level 2 was introduced, with the

more favourable overlap of 35 knots of northwest effective shear

and there will be moderate/severe instability.

…Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley…

Isolated to isolated thunderstorms are possible near the

cold front this afternoon, and along an almost parallel, prefrontal

Trough/convergence zone. Storms should move east/southeast and

last until the early evening.

In addition to the buoyancy along these borders, activities are supported

by daily weaker MLCINH, with surface dew points in the upper

10 to 15 °C, which contributes to about 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak

Low altitude flow and nearly unidirectional wind at low/medium altitude

Profiles will tend to limit shear, but provide sufficient cloud guidance

To support multicellular storm structures, layer shear should be present.

Damaging gusts and isolated hail are possible from

best organized convection.