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Houston Roughnecks vs. Michigan Panthers

Theo

In this week’s divisional battle, the Michigan Panthers (6-2) will travel to take on the Houston Roughnecks (1-7) at Rice Stadium in what should be a hard-fought battle in the trenches. Both teams’ strong defenses, coupled with QB questions across the board, all point to a low-scoring affair in Texas.

Michigan comes into this game having won 4 straight games and clinched a spot in the USFL conference title. Mike Nolan and company keep the team rolling despite struggles at the QB positions and injuries across the board. Their success in recent weeks is a testament to the depth of talent the coaching staff has assembled and has obviously paid off in recent weeks.

Houston, on the other hand, finally appears to be recovering from the injuries it has suffered all season. Despite four straight losses, the team recently turned in their best performance of the year against Birmingham and may have found their future at QB in Nolan Henderson. With Michigan seriously injured and with little to play for other than pride, we might have a perfect trap game brewing…

Let’s take a look at the key factors (and history) between these two teams to discern who has the upper hand in Sunday’s showdown.

Quarterback play

For Michigan, the QB situation is more up in the air than ever. The first meeting between these two teams in Detroit saw an outstanding performance from Panthers’ EJ Perry, which made a major difference in the game. Since then, Perry and backup Danny Etling have been injured, leaving the team in the hands of emergency quarterback Brian Lewerke and FA Bryce Perkins. The two split time, alternating possessions against Memphis and DC.

While unorthodox, the 2-QB system has worked surprisingly well – leaving many wondering if the team should even return Etling if he returns from injury.

The big question heading into this week is who will start for the Panthers. Although he’s technically Lewerke over the past two weeks, Perkins has arguably been more of a threat due to his mobility and composure. Their different playing styles also add additional difficulty for opposing defenses trying to set up. If the positive QB play continues – and we see a true QB1 emerge for Michigan in this game – it’s likely that Coach Nolan and the staff will roll with them for the rest of the season.

The Roughnecks also lost their starter at the start of the season. Jay Guarantano was lost in week one with what many perceived to be a season-ending injury. He returned in Week 7 in a lackluster performance against San Antonio before quickly returning to the sideline with a minor wrist injury.

This paved the way for Reed Sinnett and Nolan Henderson to take the field again against Birmingham – with the latter putting in an outstanding performance and almost leading the team to an upset victory. Sinnett, who had a decent season, was replaced by the Delaware Alum midway through the game. The move brought the offense to life. Henderson threw for just under 100 yards and rushed for a touchdown. While those stats don’t scream superstar, his dynamic running ability opened up the ground game for Houston and confused the Stallions’ defensive front.

Coach CJ Johnson was also particularly impressed with Nolan’s performance during his post-game interview. While it’s notable to mention that Henderson left Saturday’s game with what CJ called a “stinger,” it’s unlikely his injury will keep him from playing this weekend. Whether Henderson catches fire again remains to be seen. He will certainly have a tough task ahead with Michigan on the other side of the ball. Tomorrow, Sinnett will see the field first.

Outstanding playmakers

For Michigan, the offense has revolved around star running back Matthew Colburn over the past two weeks. The former Philly Star set a game-high total for the Panthers in Week 7, then rushed for 2 touchdowns and 93 yards in the next game. With Wes Hills out for the remainder of the season, expect Colburn to carry much of the load on the ground.

Defensively for the Panthers, Breeland Speaks continues to dominate the trenches. The Ole Miss EDGE superstar has the third-most sacks in the league with 5.5 and an impressive 23 tackles to his name. Recently, he’s been out of practice with an ankle injury, but if he continues Saturday, it will make the Panthers’ job a lot easier.

The Roughnecks have struggled to find a big-time player who can play for them in crucial moments, but RB Mark Thompson has shown his potential over the past two games.

Despite not having as good a season as his USFL campaign thanks to a preseason injury, Thompson looked his best all year last week against Birmingham. Coach CJ has also recently shown increased confidence in Mark. If Johnson is also willing to increase the workload, Thompson could play a breakout game against Michigan. Either way, the Roughnecks will need his presence.

On the other side of the ball, if LB Reuben Foster can return to full health, he will have a major impact. Foster has been the best, if not one of Houston’s best players throughout the year, but injuries have continually plagued the superstar. As of now, there has been no update on his status.

Breaking down the statistics

Michigan enters the game favored by 3.5, just a slight advantage over Houston. Despite the large gap in records between the two teams, their statistics are fairly balanced.

– Michigan averages 22.1 pts per game compared to 15.5 for Houston.
– Houston averages 173 passing yards per game, compared to 166 for Michigan. It is respectively the 7th and 8th in the UFL.
– Michigan averages 124 rushing yards per game, compared to 70 for Houston.
– Both teams convert 3rd downs at around 37%.
– The Roughnecks are the most penalized team with 60 penalties compared to 47 for Michigan.

These statistics once again paint a picture of a likely weak match. Offensively, both teams’ struggles are forgivable due to injuries, but at this point in a spring football season, you have to be able to adapt, adjust and play to your strengths. Michigan has done better so far by relying on its defense and ground game to pass. Houston, at this point in the season, has not.

Coach match

Roughnecks coach CJ Johnson and coach Mike Nolan have now played each other twice in the spring. During a game in the first week of the 2023 USFL season, both coaches made their spring debuts. The Panthers pulled away, winning 29-13 thanks to an offensive explosion from Josh Love. When the two teams and coaches faced off earlier this year, the Panthers’ QB (this time EJ Perry) once again had the best game of the season. If history repeats itself a third time – with yet another different QB, we could be looking at a mismatch for Houston.

Mike Nolan comes from a more defensive background, having plenty of experience in the NFL as a DC and head coach of the 49ers. His teams are generally built on discipline and winning in the trenches. This season, however, the Panthers’ offense has found more spark thanks to offensive coordinator Marcel Bellefeuille of the Philadelphia Stars.

As spring football coach, CJ Johnson seemingly did the same thing, with both of his teams being more defense-oriented. However, Johnson himself was previously more of an offensive thinker, serving as a WRs coach for much of his career. While poor QB play has primarily kept this offense from taking off, it’s possible we see improvements with Henderson under management this week.

In a match where so much remains up in the air due to each team’s injuries and question marks, coaching and adaptability will play a central role in deciding who emerges victorious.

Final Thoughts

Houston has its back against the wall, a home crowd and nothing to lose in this game. They have just had their best performance and have found new energy on the offensive side of the ball with Henderson. Mark Thompson is the best he’s seen all season and many depth players are returning from injury.

Additionally, head coach CJ Johnson needs to prove to this league and this city that his team and coaching staff are worth supporting in the years to come. With all of that in mind, Sunday’s game looks like a perfect storm for Houston…and a must-win.

On the Panthers side, Mike Nolan has no reason to be aggressive. Resting players, figuring out what works and what doesn’t before a big game against Birmingham next week will and should be Michigan’s priority. The team will definitely play with energy, enthusiasm and effort, but I have a feeling they might be looking to the future. Regardless, QB Lewerke and Perkins have something to prove, and each player is doing their best to get film for the NFL. Knowing that I still expect Michigan to come out and perform well. Anticipate a close game and a tough divisional battle this UFL weekend.

The Houston Roughnecks and Michigan Panthers face off at Rice Stadium, 2:30 p.m. ET this Sunday on FOX.

Full Roster Breakdown: Houston, Michigan

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