Why are so many Mexican election candidates killed?

One candidate was shot multiple times while working out at the gym. Another died when gunmen opened fire during her campaign rally. A third candidate was walking through the streets with her supporters when shots were fired.

Across Mexico, dozens of candidates, their relatives and party members have been the victims of violent attacks ahead of next month’s parliamentary elections, which will be the country’s largest election in terms of voters and seats. At least 36 candidates have been killed since last June, according to a New York Times analysis.

This is a cruel milestone even for Mexico, where violence has been a part of the election campaign for decades.

Why is election violence so bad?

The rise in violence in Mexico is largely due to local criminal groups, according to security analysts and law enforcement agencies.

The fragmentation of Mexico’s major crime syndicates has led to rival gangs fighting bitter battles for power and territory. In their quest for dominance, these gangs resort to interference and intimidation of the authorities to exert control over communities in an attempt to gain protection, obtain valuable intelligence and expand their activities.

A sharp rise in violence during elections is not uncommon in Mexico. In the last election cycle in 2021, when voters across the country cast their ballots for more than 19,900 local offices, at least 32 candidates were killed, according to a study by the College of Mexico, a university in Mexico City.

“It’s about warning the other candidates to hold back. A reminder that they are not in charge,” says Manuel Pérez Aguirre, a political scientist who worked on the study. “And citizens should also know that someone is watching. It is a democracy. But it is a monitored democracy.”

The increasing violence is also due in part to the size of the election and the large number of candidates: over 20,000 local and more than 600 federal offices are up for election, making this year’s election the largest in Mexican history.

Why are candidates killed?

It is difficult to say exactly why certain candidates were targeted. Many of the political assassinations of the past year and previous election cycles remain unexplained.

According to officials, some of the murders were more criminal or personal in nature. A car theft gone wrong. An argument with a family member that ended tragically.

But the Times found that at least 28 of the 36 killings of candidates this campaign season allegedly involved organized crime groups, according to local law enforcement, party leaders and local news reports. Adding to the fear is the fact that not only candidates are being targeted, but also their family members. At least 14 of those family members have been killed in recent months.

Why were local candidates the most targeted?

Cartels can most effectively influence politics at the local level.

“Structurally, it is the most vulnerable, the weakest, the one with the fewest resources, the one with the least institutional strength,” says Arturo Espinosa, director of the Electoral Laboratory, a Mexican research group focused on democracy that has so far documented 272 cases of electoral violence across the country – including murders, threats, kidnappings and attacks.

This trend suggests that organized crime gangs are seeking de facto control of cities across Mexico, primarily for economic reasons.

“It’s about infiltrating local governments, seizing government resources, gaining access to information critical to their work and taking control of the security forces,” says Sandra Ley, a security analyst at the political organization Mexico Evaluates.

What is the government doing to curb the violence?

In response to the killings, the country’s electoral authority has worked with federal security forces, such as the army and national guard, to provide protection to candidates who request it. Last week, Mexican officials said security forces provided protection to 487 candidates.

State governments are also deploying state and local police officers to ensure the safety of dozens of local candidates. But a lack of resources, bureaucratic hurdles and a weakened local police force make it difficult to keep organized crime in check. “Many of these agencies have become vulnerable,” Ms. Ley said.