Expert provides insight into the suspected cause of the helicopter crash that killed Iran’s president

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and other officials were killed in a helicopter crash near Iran’s northern border with Azerbaijan on Sunday, Iranian state media said on Monday morning.

The helicopter was part of a convoy of three helicopters returning from an event to inaugurate a joint dam project when it crashed in thick fog in a remote area on Sunday. The fog and rough terrain made search operations difficult. All eight bodies on board were found on Monday.

Raisi’s death comes at a time of heightened international tensions and increasing speculation over who will ultimately replace Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Raisi was widely seen as a potential successor.

ABC contributor Col. Steve Ganyard, a former fighter pilot and former State Department official, analyzed the crash – and the political fallout in Iran and elsewhere – with “Start Here” on Monday morning.

START HERE: What do we know so far about this incident?

GANYARD: It seems to be a pretty classic accident that happens when helicopter pilots try to fly under the weather in very mountainous terrain. So we know it was very foggy in the area. We know that dignitaries and very important people were there, which often places an additional, at least mental, burden on the pilots to ensure that they reach their destination. And when flying in the mountains and visibility is very poor, there is a natural tendency for helicopter pilots to descend and try to get lower and get under the fog or cloud cover. And they know they can ground the plane if necessary. But often this leads to tragedy. If you remember, earlier this year, in February, a Marine Corps helicopter attempted to do just that, it attempted to return to San Diego and crashed in the mountains above San Diego, just east of San Diego. And unfortunately, all of the Marines on board lost their lives.

START HERE: So we are dealing with an area with dense forest, lots of rain and fog. The Iranian government said it had sent rescue teams. But we don’t get much information from them. Is this typical of the Iranian national government?

GANYARD: That’s what happens when you have a mishap involving high-level people. Obviously, this is the president of the country. He’s not the most important man – Ayatollah Khamenei remains the most important person in terms of leadership there in Iran. But this is still a very important, very public figure. He is in many ways the chosen face of Iran to the rest of the world. And you had the foreign minister. So, interestingly, you had two of the people most responsible for the problems that Iran has caused in the region. As we know, they are major supporters of the Houthis, major supporters of Hamas, major supporters of Hezbollah. And so all of the woes of the region and all of the instability are being controlled, at least in some way, influenced by two of the people who were on that helicopter.

START HERE: Well, and you alluded to this, the politics there. Could this crash change the dynamics and US view of Tehran, or would you expect Raisi’s hardline government to carry on no matter what?

GANYARD: Well, Raisi is the highest-ranking elected official in Iran, and his foreign ministers are very public foreign ministers. He is the face of relations with the rest of the world, especially the rest of the region. But it has no real impact on politics in Iran. The Ayatollahs still control all power in Iran. But the real power does not lie with the president. It’s still with the mullahs. It still rests with Ayatollah Khamenei.

START HERE: Well, and I realize, Steve, there are a lot of unknowns about what actually caused this crash. The weather appears to be the main culprit. But there will be people who wonder whether Israel may have been involved in some way. Is that even possible?

GANYARD: It’s possible. You never know. The Israelis have done some amazing operations in Iran. But we also know that the weather was a key problem here, and the fact that two other helicopters were able to land in addition to the President’s helicopter but lost sight of the President’s helicopter suggests that it was probably weather-related. But at this point we just have to wait and see. Obviously, the Iranians will never admit it if the Israelis had a hand in it, and the Israelis probably wouldn’t take responsibility in that case.

START HERE: And Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer says U.S. intelligence currently indicates Israel is not behind it. I want to make that clear. Steve, thank you so much for being with us.