The Value of Things: The Houston Texans Sideline Report

In one of my other pieces, I mentioned the concept of “magical thinking.” Essentially, it comes down to this: assuming everything goes well and some luck comes your way as well. This happened last season with some unexpected performances. Magical thinking can kill you because you come to expect positive results when they are not necessarily justified.

As fans, we can afford that. Managers and coaches cannot. There has to be contingencies piled on top of contingencies, because sometimes you need every moment of it. The offensive line was a tremendous example of this last season. The Houston Texans had to go four deep at center and almost as deep at left guard. This is what the side may look like.

So we’re going to put on our general manager hat and look at the list to see what positions (or situations) can move aside. Sometimes you can make changes here and there to strengthen these positions. Sometimes you just need to pray that everything will work out. When the calendar reaches June, the number of attractive options decreases to a minimum.

Defensive tackle

The Texans passed up two quality starting defensive tackles. No one would put Sheldon Rankins or Maliek Collins in the Pro Bow, but they played for this team. Denico Autry is a better passer than either, but he’s also more of a defensive end. Otherwise, it’s a group of part-time actors who may or may not produce.

The hope is that they can cobble together a rotation that works. Looking at the numbers, this seems somewhat reasonable. That being said, they weren’t strong in the middle when running last season and it could be worse this year. It’s hard for all those passers to get the quarterback’s start when the opposing offense can rely on the running game against you.

Cornerback

Steven Nelson was passable in the second turn for the most part. He also completely blew up the bridge between him and the Texans on Instagram. He was burned several times, but also threw five interceptions counting the playoffs. The Texans signed two missed picks in the first round and drafted a corner in the second round. We affectionately call this the “throw a bunch of crap at the wall and see what sticks” plan.

Financially, this kind of approach makes perfect sense. You’re essentially getting three potential entries for the price of one good one. There’s a good chance one of these guys will make it. It would probably be better if Kamari Lassiter were to step in, but there’s a good chance it’ll be CJ Henderson or Jeff Okudah who does it. This thing is going to go seriously wrong if none of them intervene.

Left guard

I would put the entire offensive line here, but I think we know the tackles will probably be solid and Shaq Mason is a pro. That leaves the center and left guard. Juice Scruggs was supposed to be center, but he was injured and then the left guard situation blew up. Put it in the center and that position will probably stabilize. Plus, Jarrett Patterson has spent a lot of time there, so this position is reasonably stable at the moment.

The left guard is something else entirely. It was supposed to be Kenyon Green and I guess it still could be. I just wouldn’t have bet the farm on that. Right now, it appears Kendrick Green is the only real alternative outside of Scruggs and Patterson. None of these are attractive. Green (Kenyon) had a full year to recover from whatever was hurting him. It’s hard to recover from a lack of professionalism. This thing keeps going wrong unless it produces something.

Backup

I’m probably an excessive worrier. That being said, this situation has deteriorated over the past year. Dameon Pierce was supposed to be the guy, and then Devin Singletary ended up being the guy. Now, you’re apparently either hoping that Pierce will step up and be good enough to be a quality backup, or that a sixth-round rookie will.

This could all be academic if Joe Mixon is healthy and productive. Still, if one or both go missing, you could find yourself in a world of hurt in the running game. Before I turn it over to Singletary, there were times last year where running the ball was a waste of time. We don’t want to go through this again.

Adding it all up

Based on last year’s records, the Texans have the fourth-toughest schedule in the NFL. They lag behind most of the AFC North because the AFC North is the best division in professional sports from top to bottom. The AFC South is no longer the laughing stock of the NFL. Both Jacksonville and Indianapolis finished above .500 last season and could credibly argue that their numbers are better.

All of this is to say that the margin of victory in the NFL is still small. Every little crack counts and it’s clear the Texans could be as good as last season and come away with a worse record. I don’t think this will happen because I believe in what the team did in the offseason, but we have to recognize that things could go wrong and the positions above are the most likely places where it could happen.