Top of the list: Is the opener dead?

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll start your baseball day with some news, notes and thoughts about the game we love.

When I think of openers, I think of Ryne Stanek. His stats as a Ray in 2018 and 2019 were comical: before being traded to the Marlins in 2019, he made 100 appearances in those two seasons; 59 of these were “starts”. In his opening appearances, he never threw more than 37 pitches, never got more than six outs, and never faced more than nine hitters. But since leaving the Rays, despite appearing in 234 games, he has played for more teams (three) than he has been a starter (zero). In fact, he averages less than an inning per appearance.

I racked my brain trying to figure out who today’s 2018/19 version of Stanek is, only to find there isn’t one. I turned to Stathead and confirmed my hunch: the 2024 launch has fallen by the wayside.

In my query I have set some filters as guardrails. Initially, I limited my search to pitchers who had three days or less of rest. This allowed me to eliminate from this sample the true starters who got injured or dropped out of games. I also limited the number of batters to nine. Facing the leadoff man twice goes against the spirit of the opener, which is about preventing batters from seeing one pitcher too often.

You don’t need a math degree to know that nine is far less than 154. But it’s not quite that simple. Remember that we are only a quarter of the way through the season and there will almost certainly be more opening games as we move forward. However, baseball is on track to use 33 openers in 2024, which would be the fewest since the opener was first used in 2018 – yes, that includes the shortened 2020 season. It’s worth noting that at this point in 2023 only 12 openers were used, so we may also see an increase in opener usage over the course of this season. Nevertheless, it is clear that something has changed.

I have no real idea whether the opening set is a good strategy in today’s game or not. I also don’t think there’s an obvious explanation as to why the opener fails. Some of this may simply be a circumstance. Gabe Kapler’s Giants used opening possessions frequently, but he can’t do it anymore. The 2018-19 Rays had Blake Snell and Charlie Morton, but they also had plenty of pitchers who were best used in short stints. This season, the Rays have a larger group of pitchers capable of carrying a starter’s workload. Five years ago, Tampa Bay turned to opening games out of necessity. That is no longer necessary now.

What to look forward to this weekend

• The Mariners have been playing some great baseball lately, winning eight of their last nine series, improving their record to 24-20 and entering Friday’s game in first place in the AL West. But they have a big test ahead, with three games in Baltimore followed by three games in the Bronx, two exciting series that will give the Mariners plenty of opportunity to show the league they’re for real. George Kirby and Corbin Burnes face off in a pitching duel on Sunday.

• The Rockies look to extend their winning streak, which currently stands at seven games, starting tonight in San Francisco. Colorado began its series last week with a win against the Giants, scoring seven runs off Keaton Winn, who will start for the Giants on Sunday. Whether or not the Rockies will go on a nine-game series at this point will depend on San Francisco starters Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks, as well as a fragmented Giants lineup without Patrick Bailey, Michael Conforto, Jung Hoo Lee and Jorge Soler.

• Although they are still the worst team in the league, the White Sox have been playing less embarrassingly lately, posting an 8-4 record in their last 12 games. This weekend, however, they travel to the Bronx to take on the first-place Yankees. Led by an incredibly hot Aaron Judge, New York has won four straight games and 10 of their last 12. In the Yankees’ three-game win over the Twins in Minnesota, Judge went 7-for-11 (.636) with five doubles. and two home runs. This season he is hitting .262/.393/.555 with 11 home runs and a wRC+ of 169, which is notable considering how much he struggled in April.

Finally, a quick note about programming. Starting next week, we will be moving Top of the Order to a twice-weekly schedule, taking place on Tuesday and Friday mornings. See you then!