Landing the third overall pick in the NBA draft

With the Rockets facing by far the greatest chances of moving up in the draft since returning to the first round in 2021, the Rockets pulled off a surprise on Sunday.

The first-round pick they acquired from the Nets in the 2021 James Harden trade to Brooklyn moved from ninth to third, giving them a top-four finish for a fourth straight season.

The Atlanta Hawks, who are in the second-worst position in the lottery, received the first pick for the first time since 1975. The Washington Wizards will pick second.

The draft is not considered as strong as it has been over the past three seasons and the Rockets have looked to trade the pick for future draft assets, an effort they could revisit with an upgraded pick. But luck in Sunday’s lottery vindicated their decision to pursue as many unprotected picks as possible, rather than established players, in the Harden trade.

The Rockets’ pick remained the 12th selection and will go to the Oklahoma City Thunder as part of the 2019 trade to acquire Russell Westbrook that sent Chris Paul to the Thunder.

The chances of either pick making the top four were slim. The Rockets had a 20.3% chance that the Nets’ pick would make the top four, and a 7.1% chance that their own pick would make that jump.

Between their own pick and the Nets’ pick, the Rockets had a 6% chance of landing the top pick, which matches the chance the Pelicans had when they won the right to pick Zion Williamson in 2019.