Israel’s attack on Rafah shows the troubling limits of Biden’s influence

• Israel said Tuesday it had sent tanks to Rafah despite U.S. warnings.
• The Biden administration says it is concerned about the lives of hostages and civilians.
• The attack signals a widening rift between the United States and Israel over actions in Gaza.

Early Tuesday, Israeli tanks took control of the key Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt.

This came after the Israeli military launched a series of attacks on the city overnight as international mediators tried to negotiate a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.

The attacks came just hours after President Joe Biden urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to invade Rafah, where hundreds of thousands of war refugees from other parts of the Gaza Strip have found temporary shelter.

But during its eight-month war, Israel has shown that it is willing to reject and ignore the advice of its most important international ally, the United States.

This despite the fact that Israel is the world’s largest recipient of American military aid. According to the ReportsWashington provides it with weapons and defense systems worth around $3.8 billion every year.

“We’re having this conversation about how terrible it would be for U.S. credibility and leadership if we don’t support Ukraine,” Matt Duss, executive vice president of the Center for International Policy, told Time in March.

“The same applies here too. Our inability to exert significant influence on Israel – a state that relies heavily on US support – is also enormously damaging.”

A snub to Biden

The Israeli escalation came after hopes of a ceasefire were raised when Hamas said it accepted a deal proposed by Qatar and Egypt to end the conflict.

John Kirby, the White House spokesman, said Sunday that Biden told Netanyahu that the U.S. would “not support ground operations in Rafah” unless it demonstrated how it intended to protect civilian lives.

Israel on Monday warned civilians in eastern Rafah to evacuate, saying an attack may be imminent. For now, their attacks on Rafah appear to be more limited than the ground invasion that Biden warned about on Sunday.

However, they show that US pressure was not enough to completely deter a Rafah offensive. The US reportedly withheld a shipment of ammunition to Israel before the attack. But that didn’t seem to be enough.

A growing rift between the US and Israel

After the Hamas terrorist attacks on October 7, in which around 1,200 people were killed and hundreds of mostly civilian hostages were taken, Biden initially offered full support to Israel and the USA.

But as the war progresses, the disagreement between Biden and Netanyahu over how to carry out the campaign to destroy Hamas becomes clearer.

Biden is trying to contain Israel and force it to stop campaigning. Israel’s attacks on Gaza have killed tens of thousands of civilians, sparked a wave of protests on U.S. campuses and weakened international support for Israel, according to Gaza health authorities.

Fears remain high that the conflict could escalate into a larger regional war.

But Netanyahu sees things differently than Biden, and Israel has maintained that it remains committed to destroying the six Hamas battalions it says are entrenched in Rafah.

He firmly rejected calls for the creation of a post-war Palestinian state, a measure supported by the US and another key US regional ally, Saudi Arabia, which has promised a deal to normalize relations. if Israel agrees.

The US says negotiating a ceasefire with Hamas remains the best way to secure the lives of the 128 Israeli hostages still in Gaza.

But Netanyahu appears to be prioritizing his Cabinet’s policy demands over the advice he receives from Biden, some analysts say. His coalition is fragile and he relies on support from far-right lawmakers who are calling for an attack on Rafah.

“Netanyahu’s calculus is much more focused on maintaining his coalition than on keeping Joe Biden happy,” Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. peace negotiator who now works at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the Wall Street Journal.

At the same time, Netanyahu is under pressure to secure the lives of the 128 Israeli hostages still in Gaza.

There remains a possibility that by attacking Rafah, Israel will gain the upper hand in a ceasefire agreement rather than positioning itself for a fuller invasion.

The New York Times, citing Biden administration officials, said the rapidly changing prospects for a ceasefire over the weekend were likely part of an attempt to “gain influence at the negotiating table, even though a clear solution is not yet in sight.”

But if Netanyahu continues his threats to invade Rafah, the consequences for the US could be dire, some warn.

The Gaza war has repeatedly threatened to escalate into a larger regional conflict, and scenes of new civilian suffering in Rafah could heighten that threat. Meanwhile, Biden’s global influence could wane if Netanyahu continues to ignore his warnings.

Dave Harden, a former mission director for the U.S. Agency for International Development in the West Bank and Gaza, recently told the BBC that Netanyahu “is treating Biden almost like a sort of inconsequential second secretary of a low-ranking European power.”

The limits of his influence on Netanyahu’s actions may soon become even clearer.