Game Preview: San Antonio Brahmas vs Houston Roughnecks, Sunday, May 12, 2024

• San Antonio Brahmas (4-2) at Houston Roughnecks (1-5)
• Sunday, May 12 at 2:00 p.m. CT (3:00 p.m. ET)
• Rice Stadium, Houston, Texas
• Tickets: Ticketmaster and Stubhub
• Network: ESPN (broadcast)
• Announcers: Mike Monaco (Play-by-Play), Sam Acho (analyst), Cole Cubelic (field analyst), Ian Fitzsimmons (field analyst)
• Odds: San Antonio -3, O/U 39 (DraftKings)

The Houston Roughnecks and the San Antonio Brahmas will meet for the first and only time in the 2024 UFL season. In their previous two matchups during the 2023 XFL season, Houston won both games.

San Antonio is playing to solidify its hold on an XFL Conference playoff spot. In fact, if the Brahmas won this game and the St. Louis Battlehawks lost to the Birmingham Stallions, their record would be identical to 5-2.

A Houston Roughnecks victory would keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Depending on how the Michigan Panthers are doing in their game, a loss would mean their playoff hopes are even further away.

What do we know?

San Antonio’s passing attack through the first four weeks of the UFL season had taken center stage, helping the Brahmas to a 3-1 start. Over the last two games, this has been a running game, as San Antonio has racked up 390 yards over the last two games. Running back John Lovett ran for a UFL record 153 yards on 23 carries against the DC Defenders. Against Arlington, Lovett and Morgan Ellison combined for 179 of San Antonio’s 190 rushing yards as the Brahmas defeated the Arlington Renegades, 25-15, at Choctaw Stadium.

Over the last two games, Lovett has totaled 248 yards on 36 carries, with two rushing touchdowns and a receiving touchdown. He had an initial record 95 yards and was the first Brahma to rush for two touchdowns in a game against Arlington. He had a season-long 36-yard run in the first quarter against Arlington. Morgan Ellison had 84 rushing yards and had San Antonio’s longest run of the season with a 47-yard run in the first quarter against Arlington. He carried five times for 17 yards against DC, while quarterback Quinten Dormady had a game-high 30 rushing yards on three carries against the DC Defenders.

Quickly through the first six games, San Antonio has one of the best receiving corps in the UFL with WRs Jontre’ Kirklin, Marquez Stevenson, Justin Smith and TE Cody Latimer. San Antonio is the only UFL team to have four players in the Top 20 in total receiving yards. WR Jontre’ Kirklin leads the UFL in receptions (37), ranks fifth in total yards (333) and seventh in receiving touchdowns (2). TE Cody Latimer is fifth in receptions (28) and 12th in receiving yards (230). WR Marquez Stevenson ranks 14th in total receiving yards (208) and seventh in receiving touchdowns (2). With 195 yards, WR Justin Smith ranks 17th in total receiving yards.

Chase Garbers had been the starting quarterback, completing 75 of 106 passes for 586 yards and six touchdowns. He is out for the year, replaced by Quinten Dormady. Dormady completed 58 of 93 passes for 512 yards, three touchdowns and five interceptions. In the Roughnecks’ previous game against DC, Dormady didn’t look strong, but it appears the Brahmas will start Dormady again this week, giving him a chance to redeem himself. Dormady definitely needs to watch for interceptions and make better decisions.

Defensively, San Antonio ranks second in sacks (18), third in scoring defense (17.3 points per game), second in total tackles (410), second in forced fumbles (6), fourth in total defense (273.8 points per game), tied for second in turnovers (8) and fourth in tackles for loss (29). The Brahmas have only given up eight touchdowns (3 rushing, 5 passing), which is the best in the UFL. Against DC, San Antonio held the Defenders to 18 points, including field goals of 54 and 58 yards. DC made just 3 of 10 on third downs.

On defense, the Brahmas boast three of the top five tacklers in the UFL, with the lead changing among teammates each week. Safety Jordan Mosley, who led the UFL in tackles for much of the season, ranks second in the league with 48 tackles. Inside linebacker Tavante Beckett ranks third in the league with 46 tackles, after having a season-high 14 tackles in the win at Arlington. Inside linebacker Jordan Williams ties Beckett for third with 46 tackles. He made a team-high 10 tackles at D.C.

San Antonio ranks second in the UFL in team sacks (18.0), adding two more sacks against Arlington and one sack at DC. The Brahmas posted a season-high six sack performance in the win over Michigan.

The Roughnecks haven’t had an easy time over the last two games, suffering a loss to the Battlehawks in St. Louis last week and then being part of a lopsided loss to the undefeated Birmingham Stallions the week before.

The Roughnecks are seventh in the UFL in total yards per game. They are seventh in rushing yards per game and sixth in passing yards. The Roughnecks are last in the UFL in points, however. This year, Reid Sinnett completed 64.2 percent of his passes for 947 yards. Sinnett also has four touchdowns and two interceptions, and has totaled 34 yards and a score.

Head coach CJ Johnson has indicated that he is looking for changes on offense, and according to the Roughnecks’ recently released depth chart for this game, they will start Jarrett Guarantano at quarterback. Guarantano was the Roughnecks’ starter in Week 1 and played in two games, completing 19 passes on 29 attempts for 181 yards before being injured. Guarantano also ran twice for 22 yards and a touchdown.

The Roughnecks’ primary running back this year has been TJ Pledger, who has 54 carries for 178 yards this year. However, he has yet to find the end zone this year. In the receiving game, Justin Hall led the way. This year, he has 283 yards and a touchdown on 33 catches. Keke Chism has 207 yards and a score, while Emmanuel Butler rounds out the top receivers with 126 yards and a score. Overall, four different players have touchdown receptions, and five players have received over 100 yards this year.

The Roughnecks rank third in the UFL in yards per game. They are third against the run, but fourth against the pass. In terms of points allowed, the Roughnecks are third in the UFL. Ethan Westbrooks has 3.5 sacks, while also making five other tackles for a loss. Meanwhile, Rueben Foster was solid, with 29 tackles, including three for a loss, while also recording three assists, an interception and a fumble recovery. Despite nagging injuries, Foster remains on the depth chart for this week’s game.

What should we expect?

As San Antonio looks to solidify their playoff hopes, they will enter this game with vigor. Without a doubt, the Brahmas smell blood in the water and they plan to take down the Roughnecks early and often. However, the Roughnecks are no pushovers. They plan to rule on defense, taking advantage of a struggling Quentin Dormady and forcing the Roughnecks’ offense to stutter and make poor decisions. Overall, this will be a defensive battle.

Oddsmakers have determined the Brahmas to be 3-point favorites in this game. Although they are on the road, the mighty Brahmas have a lot to play for and should make it their mission to defeat the Roughnecks. A good prediction is that the 3 point spread will be crushed, but the underside of the O/U should be respected.