ESPN Fantasy Analyst’s Surprisingly Low Projections for Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen

Is he talking about the same Josh Allen?

The one who has totaled more than 40 touchdowns in each of the last four seasons? The Buffalo Bills quarterback who is responsible for more total touchdowns in the first six years of an NFL career than any other player in league history? Is this Josh Allen?

ESPN’s Mike Clay released his 2024 fantasy football stats projections for all 32 NFL teams, and the numbers Allen predicted would represent a regression not yet seen during the franchise field general’s professional tenure.

Appearing in 15 of 17 games, Allen finished the simulated 2024 season with 31 total touchdowns (23 passing, 8 rushing) and 3,699 passing yards. Perhaps these are overly conservative computer projections, but it’s hard to imagine Allen’s production dropping so dramatically if he stays on the field throughout the regular season.

He played through an elbow injury in 2022 and nursed a shoulder injury in 2023, while posting much higher statistical production than ESPN’s projections for 2024.

Allen, a three-time NFL MVP finalist, had no less than 4,283 passing yards or 29 touchdown passes in any of his most recent four seasons. Even in just 16 games in 2022 (the game against the Bengals was canceled), Allen managed to throw 35 touchdowns.

With more time in offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s plan, Allen should continue to produce MVP-worthy numbers. The losses of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis aren’t enough to slow down Allen, who is a dual threat with a habit of spreading the ball around. In 2020, he connected with 12 different players on touchdown passes. In 2023, 10 players have caught at least one TD pass from Allen.

Either Clay is trolling or he hasn’t been watching Allen enough lately. As long as he stays healthy and available, there’s a good chance Allen will crush the projected numbers.