Israel-Hezbollah conflict threatens to escalate after attack on football pitch

Israeli officials are considering how to respond to the weekend’s Hezbollah attack that killed 12 children, as escalating tensions threaten to derail U.S. efforts to bring stability and peace to the region.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced that Hezbollah will “pay the price” after a rocket hit a soccer field in Israel’s Golan Heights. In addition to the dead, 20 people were injured in the attack in a city dominated by the Muslim Druze minority.

The US has been trying for months to ease tensions between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel, but with little success as both sides move toward a wider war. Israel is already debating whether a military operation in Lebanon is necessary, and the weekend attack could strengthen the arguments of those in favour of war.

Although there were numerous attacks back and forth across the Israeli-Lebanese border, the attack on the Golan Heights struck a nerve and put new pressure on Israel to respond with all its might.

It also shows how out of control the conflict has gotten.

“The problem with this conflict is that deterrence has disappeared and Hezbollah is used to attacking Israel without consequences,” says Michael Rubin, director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum.

Rubin predicted war if Lebanon and the United Nations do not take stronger measures to contain Hezbollah.

“The result will be war, and it will look like Gaza, because the status quo has failed to deter Hezbollah.”

The limited Israeli attacks on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon over the past two days are likely to be just the beginning of Israeli retaliation. The Lebanese militia is rapidly preparing to defend itself against an Israeli attack, reportedly evacuating some areas in the south and preparing precision-guided missiles.

Netanyahu, whose security cabinet has authorized a retaliatory strike, doubled down on his harsh response to Hezbollah in a post on social media platform X after visiting the site of the Golan Heights attack.

“These children are our children, they are the children of all of us,” he wrote. “Our response will come, and it will be harsh.”

The nearly 10-month conflict between Israel and Hezbollah began on October 8, a day after Hamas’ attack on Israel, when the Iran-backed military and political group in Lebanon fired artillery and rockets across the border in support of Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

The fighting has already inflicted heavy casualties on Lebanon: around 100 civilians and 350 Hezbollah fighters have been killed. Around 20 Israeli soldiers and another 20 or so civilians in Israel have died.

But as long as the war in Gaza rages on, the conflict is unlikely to end. Israel is moving closer to an agreement that could allow the release of around 116 hostages held by Hamas in Gaza and a ceasefire. But it is unclear when that agreement will be reached and whether it will bring a halt to fighting in the north.

Israel is demanding the safe return of some 80,000 civilians evacuated from the north and a plan to ensure their future protection. Hezbollah is one of Iran’s main proxies and has some 120,000 rockets, making it a far greater threat than Hamas.

And Israeli authorities are concerned about the country’s long-term security following the October 7 attacks by Hamas, when the militant Palestinian group invaded southern Israel, killing around 1,200 people and taking about 250 hostages.

A diplomatic solution acceptable to Israel would likely involve enforcing a United Nations resolution introduced after Israel’s 2006 offensive on Lebanon that calls for a demilitarized zone between the Litani River and a UN-drawn demarcation line called the “Blue Line.”

Gregory Gause, a professor of international affairs at Texas A&M University, said Israel will wait for an opportunity to attack Hezbollah in a major operation after a ceasefire in Gaza unless the Lebanese militant group agrees to withdraw its troops from the border.

“It is only a matter of time before we see some kind of Israeli military action in the north, whether in this specific Hezbollah attack or at some later date,” he said.

Despite constant shelling across the border, Hezbollah has not sought to escalate the conflict. Hezbollah officials denied playing a role in the attack on the Golan Heights, although Israel has presented evidence that it was likely a rocket fired by the militant group – a claim the United States also supports.

Israel’s reaction to the attack on the Golan Heights will be crucial.

Rubin told the Middle East Forum that Israeli politicians were under pressure to show they were willing to stand up for the Druze minority, who live in territory Israel took from Syria in 1967.

“The Druze have always been extremely loyal to Israel, and if Israel does not respond and avenge the deaths of these Druze children, it will become a major problem within Israel,” he said. “I suspect there will be a multi-day campaign that will penetrate deep into Lebanon and hit Hezbollah military bases.”

Representatives of the Biden administration have been in the region for months trying to defuse the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, but with little success.

Netanyahu said in his joint speech to Congress last week that he preferred a diplomatic solution but did not fear a military option. The decision for war was supported by far-right leaders in his cabinet, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Monday he was “confident” they could still reach a diplomatic solution and that there was “still time and space for diplomacy.”

“We have all heard about this scenario of a full-scale war. However, over the past 10 months, it has been shown many times that these predictions were exaggerated,” he said. “But nobody wants a major war, and I am confident that we can avoid such an outcome.”

Kirby added that Israel “has every right to respond to Hezbollah’s attacks.”

“No country should have to live with such a threat,” he said. “It is important that we continue these diplomatic talks with both sides. We are trying and will try to reduce tensions.”

Yet each round of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah seems to bring them closer to war and further away from a diplomatic settlement.

Amikam Norkin, a retired Israeli Air Force commander, said the fighting with Hezbollah posed the risk that “something could happen any day,” such as the attack on the Golan Heights.

“Day by day we are moving toward military activity and less toward diplomatic agreement,” said Norkin, now a distinguished fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, which held a news conference on Monday. “But I think the decision should be made when we reach a ceasefire in Gaza.”