Attack on the Golan Heights leaves the unspoken rules of the border war in ruins

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced that Hezbollah will pay “a heavy price” for the attack that killed 12 children on a soccer field in Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on Saturday.

The costs that Netanyahu, his Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Israel’s military chiefs impose on Hezbollah will determine whether the war on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border remains limited and relatively controlled or develops into something much worse.

The border war began a day after Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7 last year, when Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel in support of the Palestinians.

Since then, the war has been fought under a series of gruesome, unspoken agreements. Israel and Hezbollah have primarily targeted military targets, although both have also killed civilians.

As a result, the war, although highly dangerous, has remained contained. Nevertheless, tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border have left their homes. Busy communities have become ghost towns.

From the beginning, there was a fear that a major attack on the civilian population by either side would trigger an uncontrolled escalation and subsequently lead to a far worse war, as both Israel and Hezbollah would deploy their full forces.

Taking action against Hezbollah in the largely depopulated areas of southern Lebanon might prevent an escalation. But killing Lebanese civilians in Beirut or destroying infrastructure such as bridges or power plants would not make this possible.

Hezbollah’s unconvincing claim that it did not carry out the attack in Majdal Shams is difficult to understand, however, why it would shoot Druze children at a football match.

Since the border war began on October 8, Hezbollah has largely adhered to the tacit rules of the conflict, seeking to kill soldiers rather than civilians.

It may have been aimed at the numerous Israeli early warning stations on the military positions in Mount Hermon.

Hezbollah is a far more dangerous enemy for Israel than Hamas. It is more powerful than the fragile Lebanese state and operates without consulting it.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is close to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Hezbollah fighters are disciplined and well-trained, and Iran has equipped them with a massive arsenal of missiles capable of hitting Israel’s cities.

In its last major war in 2006, Hezbollah fought against Israel and crippled its forces. Its men have extensive combat experience, having spent years fighting in Syria in support of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

The Israeli leadership knows all this. It also knows that, despite its enormous firepower, it has not yet been able to defeat Hamas in Gaza and that the reservists on which its army relies are under considerable pressure.

Israel is also under strong pressure from its allies, including the United States – without which it cannot sustain its war effort – not to take any action that would escalate the war into open combat.

The Americans and the French have tried to negotiate a solution to de-escalate the border war between Israel and Hezbollah. The lack of a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip reduces their chances of success.

The border between Israel and Lebanon remains the place where the war in the Middle East is most likely to intensify.

Even if the crisis triggered by the killing of young football players and spectators in Majdal Shams passes without further riots, the “rules” of the border war are still tattered, imperfect and unstable, and there remains a risk that a single bloody incident could trigger another catastrophic war.