Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros Prediction, Preview and Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros – Details

• Date: July 29, 2024
• Place: Minute Maid Park
• Starting pitchers:
  • Paul Skenes – Pirates
  • Jake Bloss – Astros

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Win Odds

The implied win percentage in sports betting represents the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It is a way for punters to assess the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by bookmakers.

Projected Win Percentage, also known as Projected Win Probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood of a team winning a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Minute Maid Park on July 29, 2024, in the opener of an interleague series. Houston, which is having an above-average season at 55-50, is reasonably well placed in its playoff race. Pittsburgh, which is hovering around average at 53-52, also remains competitive.

The pitching matchup is intriguing. Jake Bloss steps on the mound for the Astros, with a 6.94 ERA over three starts and a modest 239th-ranked Power Ranking. He’s had a rough season, but his 4.71 xERA suggests he’s been unlucky, indicating he could bounce back. On the other hand, Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes is having an elite season. Ranked No. 3 in the Power Rankings among pitchers, Skenes has an impressive 1.93 ERA over 12 starts, though his 2.55 xERA suggests he’s been a bit lucky.

Houston’s offense stands out against Skenes. Ranked ninth overall and dominant with the team’s second-best batting average, the Astros bring a solid lineup of hitters to the plate. However, facing Skenes, a strikeout specialist with a 34.2 strikeout percentage, could be a challenge, though Houston’s hitters are particularly tough to strike out, ranking third in strikeout percentage.

The Pirates’ offensive struggles could be a respite for Houston’s pitchers. Ranked 28th in overall offense, Pittsburgh ranks poorly in batting average, home runs and stolen bases. Bloss, a low-strikeout pitcher against this high-strikeout offense (ranked 5th worst), could find an advantage here.

The Astros’ Jeremy Pena has been in fine form, leading the team over the past week with a .391 batting average and a 1.025 OPS. For Pittsburgh, Rowdy Tellez has shined, batting .455 and a 1.448 OPS over the past five games.

While the Pirates are favored, savvy bettors could see value in the Astros, who could capitalize if Skenes doesn’t play his best game. The game’s 7.5 run total suggests a tight, low-scoring contest, but Houston’s powerhouse team could swing the score.

Pittsburgh Pirates Quick Look:

Over his last 3 GS, Paul Skenes has suffered a noticeable drop in his fastball speed: from 2279 rpm all season to 2210 rpm recently.

• Spin rate is a key component of fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see better results.

Josh Palacios has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4 mph dropping to 82.3 mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of a home run or a ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can reach it.

Today, Rowdy Tellez is at a disadvantage against the 8th deepest center field fences in the league, as he hits his fly balls to center field at a 40.2% rate (99th percentile).

• This player’s skillset is not particularly well suited to the stage he is currently playing at, which may lead to subpar performance.

Houston Astros Quick Look:

John Bloss has had less wiggle room than the average pitcher this year, throwing 13.7 fewer adjusted pitches per game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with shorter leashes are more likely to be retired earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Hitters like Alex Bregman, who have extreme flyball tendencies, are generally more effective against pitchers like Paul Skenes, who lean toward the groundball end of the spectrum.

• It mostly has to do with how the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the trajectory of the pitch, and it can create improved performance across all categories and hidden value that few people consider.

According to THE BAT, Yainer Diaz (the Astros’ expected catcher in today’s game) is considered a horrible pitcher.

• Pitch framing is the ability of a catcher to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, thereby “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (such as strikeouts) and less negative outcomes (such as walks or earned runs).

Gaming Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the home run line in 39 of their last 65 games (+14.10 units / 17% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the home run line in 41 of their last 71 games (+10.60 units / 12% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit the over in 31 of his last 50 games (+15.65 units / 30% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Prediction

Final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.29 vs. Houston Astros 3.61

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