Projecting which Bills will receive 2 additional compensatory draft picks next year

As Bills fans know, the Buffalo Bills lost a few key free agents after the 2024 season and didn’t have much room to sign the best free agents available. This likely makes the bills eligible for compensatory elections in 2025.

Compensatory draft picks are typically awarded to teams that lose more compensatory free agents than they sign in free agency. The NFL’s formula is not public, but a few analysts have been able to accurately predict the likely rewards of compensatory picks.

Currently, Buffalo has signed three players in the 2024 offseason who are likely to “qualify” as compensatory free agents, while losing five “qualified” players.

Related: Complete list of current Bills selections in each round of the 2025 NFL Draft

Key free agent losses in 2024:

• Wide receiver Gabe Davis to Jacksonville
• Linebacker Tyrel Dodson in Seattle
• Leonard Floyd, Edge rusher, in San Francisco
• Carolina cornerback Dane Jackson
• Wide receiver Deonte Harty to Baltimore
• Defensive lineman Tim Settle
• Linebackers Tyler Matakevich and AJ Klein, as well as safety Micah Hyde, remain unsigned

Related: Buffalo Bills Still Waiting on Micah Hyde Decision?

Key free agent additions in 2024:

• Curtis Samuel: 3-year contract worth $24 million, with $15.02 million guaranteed
• Austin Johnson: One-year, $3.5 million contract with $3.04 million guaranteed
• Mike Edwards: one-year, $2.8 million contract with $600,000 guaranteed

Roster Draft Selection Projections:

As a result, NFL.com analyst Lance Zierlein predicts the Bills will receive two roster picks:

• deals for Gabe Davis (Jags) and Leonard Floyd (49ers) are significantly higher in APY than those given to qualified free agents by the Bills, which would reward two selections.
• The Bills’ signings of Curtis Samuel and Austin Johnson would offset the free agency losses of Tyler Dodson (Seattle) and Dane Jackson (Carolina).
• The departure of Tim Settle could potentially lead to another seventh-round selection if he plays a significant role with the Texans.

OverTheCap currently projects that Buffalo will also get two compensatory draft picks in the 2025 NFL Draft – a fourth-round selection to compensate for the offseason departure of wide receiver Gabriel Davis, and a fifth-round pick due to the departure of defensive end Leonard Floyd.

Related: Brandon Beane: Buffalo Bills fifth-round edge rusher needs to ‘improve’ in one key area

Two potential compensatory picks would increase the Bills’ total number of picks in the 2025 NFL Draft to 10. But…if the Bills signed additional free agents labeled as compensatory free agents, those two projected compensatory draft picks could go down.