Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves

With the trade deadline just days away, the Brewers will get a potential playoff preview. Currently leading the National League wild-card race, the Braves could be a matchup for the Brewers if both teams qualify for the playoffs. These two teams will play all six of their games this season over the next week and a half. The Brewers return to Atlanta next week, and it will be the second of four straight series against National League East opponents.

Injuries have plagued the Braves offense this season. They lost Ronald Acuña Jr. for the season in May with a torn ACL. Then Michael Harris II suffered a strained left hamstring on June 14 and will be out until mid-August. The most recent injury was Ozzie Albies, who fractured his left wrist on July 21 and won’t return until September.

This has contributed to a Braves offense that has been a bit below average this season. They are 19th in MLB in wRC+ (96), 12th in SLG (.403), and 24th in OBP (.303). Marcell Ozuna leads the offense with a 30 HR season. He has also posted a .307/.385/.596 batting line and a wRC+ of 170. However, the offense quickly falls off after that. Austin Riley (13), Jarred Kelenic (11), and Matt Olson (14) are the other three Braves with double-digit home runs. However, Riley is the only one of them with a wRC+ above 100 (112). The Braves also lost most of their speed on the bases with Acuña Jr.’s injury. He threw 16 steals before retiring for the season, and the next most steals are Ozzie Albies and Harris II (both with 8). Their offense has suffered even more over the last month, with their 90 wRC+ ranking 26th in MLB.

Meanwhile, the pitching staff has also dealt with its share of injuries. Max Fried was placed on the disabled list on July 21 with left forearm neuritis, and his recovery timeline is uncertain. Prospect Hurston Waldrep is also on the disabled list with right elbow inflammation, but he is currently rehabbing. They also lost Ray Kerr, Spender Strider and Angel Perdomo for the season. Additionally, Tyler Matzek and Huascar Ynoa are on the disabled list, but their recovery timelines are uncertain. The most recent injury was Reynaldo López, who left Sunday’s game with right forearm tightness.

Despite the injuries, the Braves have one of the best pitching staffs in MLB. Their 9.15 strikeout/9 rate is the best in MLB. They also have one of the lowest walk rates in MLB (2.82 BB/9), the third-best team ERA (3.48), and the second-best FIP ​​(3.50). Chris Sale has become a force in the rotation again, and Reynaldo López is the best starting pitcher in MLB in ERA. Raisel Iglesias and Jesse Chavez have established a potent duo in the bullpen. They have eight different relievers with an ERA under 3. Offense could be a plus against them, but the Brewers could have a chance to break out early. Their rotation is in a weird spot that could work in their favor.

Probable launchers

Monday, July 29 at 7:10 p.m.: Grant Holmes (2.70 ERA, 2.12 FIP) vs. Colin Rea (3.60 ERA, 4.31 FIP)

Grant Holmes began his rookie season as a relief pitcher in mid-June. He has been a long-time reliever for the team so far. In 10 appearances, he has had seven scoreless games. His last two appearances have lasted more than three innings, and he has allowed three runs and two runs in those appearances. This will be his first start of his major league career. He has reached a major league high of 52 pitches. In the minor leagues, he has made a few starts this season. His longest minor league start was five innings.

Colin Rea is coming off a solid start against the Cubs on Tuesday. He threw five key scoreless innings as the Brewers cruised to a 1-0 victory in a pitching duel. The Brewers have had success when he has pitched, with the Brewers going 14-6 in his starts (though three of those came after an opener). His strikeout rate has increased, and he has 15 strikeouts in his last two starts. He has also limited his home runs recently, allowing just one in his last four starts. That has helped lower his FIP by a half-point.

Tuesday, July 30 at 7:10 p.m.: TBD vs. TBD

This is an odd discrepancy here, as neither team has announced a starter for Tuesday’s game. Chris Sale could pitch for the Braves here on four days’ rest and Charlie Morton on four days’ rest on Wednesday, but the Braves are starting Sale on Wednesday instead. This is odd but not unusual for the Braves this season, as they have routinely given their starters five days’ rest. However, in this situation, they are left without a clear starter for Tuesday. Max Fried was placed on the injured list on July 21, and Bryce Elder was sent down to the minor leagues after his July 20 start. Allan Winans also made a recent start but was optioned on July 25. Even if the Braves make this a bullpen game, they will likely need to make a roster move to help with depth.

The Brewers also haven’t announced a starter for Tuesday, but they do have a likely starter lined up. Joe Ross is expected to return from the disabled list. He has been on the injured list since May 21 with a lower back injury. He has made four starts in the minor leagues, one for Wisconsin in High-A and three for Nashville in Triple-A. His last start for Nashville was on May 4 ¹⁄₃ He allowed three runs and five hits on 80 pitches. Bryse Wilson should also be available for an extended relief appearance if needed.

Wednesday, July 31 at 1:10 p.m.: Chris Sale (2.68 ERA, 2.29 FIP) vs. Freddy Peralta (3.94 ERA, 3.82 FIP)

The series will end with a matchup of the team’s aces. Chris Sale has returned to All-Star form in his first season with the Braves. He leads the MLB with 13 wins, and the Braves are 13-6 when he pitches. In his 19 starts this season, he has allowed more than two runs in only three of those starts. He is also fourth in the MLB in strikeout percentage (11.429) and fourth with 149 strikeouts. The Braves have been cautious with his usage, with 105 his record for pitches thrown in a start. He also has not exceeded 7 ¹⁄₃ innings, and as mentioned above, he typically pitches on at least five days of rest.

On the other side, Freddy Peralta will look to match Sale in this game. Peralta is also among the MLB leaders in strikeouts. His 11.178 K/9 ranks sixth in the MLB, and he’s eighth with 142 strikeouts. Unfortunately, Peralta hasn’t had the same success as Sale this season. His last start was rough on Friday, allowing five runs (three earned) in 5 ¹⁄₃ The Marlins won 10 innings. With two pitchers likely to strike out, this could be a game where runs will be very important.

Prediction

The Brewers are catching the Braves at the right time. The Braves are dealing with an unusual hole in their rotation and the Brewers are getting stronger with the return of Joe Ross and Devin Williams. Wednesday’s game could favor the Braves, but the Brewers have good opportunities in the first two games. This will be an interesting game to watch with a potential playoff opponent in town. I predict the Brewers will bounce back and win two of three games here.