Venezuelans in Houston will be watching Maduro and Gonzalez’s elections closely

Victor’s brother first came to join him in Houston. Then came his aunts, uncles and cousins. At least six friends and family members have emigrated from his native Venezuela to Houston this year. Meanwhile, Victor, 44, has watched from afar as Venezuela has descended deeper into an economic and humanitarian crisis.

Today, his second brother wants to join him. But only one thing is keeping him in Venezuela: he is waiting to know the result of Sunday’s presidential election.

“He has children and he has trouble buying them school supplies,” says Victor, who chose to give only his first name for fear of political persecution against his family in Venezuela. “Having a future in Venezuela is complicated, unfortunately. Venezuela wasn’t like this before.”

Venezuelans will go to the polls on Sunday in a crucial election where the opposition has raised hopes among Venezuelans weakened by years of food shortages, a crumbling health system and political repression. Polls show former diplomat Edmundo González is likely to unseat incumbent President Nicolás Maduro, who has overseen an unprecedented economic collapse since coming to power after the death of strongman Hugo Chavez in 2013.

Maduro, who is seeking a third six-year term, says he is the best choice for Venezuela and warns of a “bloodbath” if he loses. His control of the military and state apparatus gives him two assets that could help him win – or steal – another term.

The election has major implications for the estimation 7.7 million Venezuelans Venezuelans are the fastest-growing immigrant population in Houston. When Victor arrived in 2006, following an uncle who knew a Venezuelan working in the oil industry in Houston, they were part of a small group of Venezuelans. Today, more than 50,000 Venezuelans live in Houston, a fivefold increase from 2010, according to the Migration Policy Institute.

Recent polls show that between 15 and 27 percent of Venezuelans are considering leaving the country in the near future.

“A lot of people have their Plan A and their Plan B,” said Beatriz Borges, executive director of the Center for Justice and Peace (Cepaz), a Houston-based nonprofit that promotes democracy and human rights in Venezuela. “They’re waiting to see what happens on July 28, but they have their Plan B activated in case there’s no political change.”

The opposition’s victory is far from certain after a tense election campaign. María Corina Machado, an industrial engineer and former member of the National Assembly, was a leading supporter of the movement to oust Maduro at the ballot box. She won a landslide majority of 93 percent of the vote in the October primaries, but was barred from running for supporting U.S. sanctions and her alleged involvement in corruption. Banning opponents is a common tactic of the Maduro regime to stifle opposition. She later threw her support behind González.

Since the beginning of the year, Cepaz has documented more than 140 cases of political violence related to the elections, including 37 arbitrary arrests.

“There has been a context of strong political repression, but on the other hand, there has been a lot of organization,” Borges said. “There is a lot of hope from those who believe in participation as a weapon of transformation, even in an authoritarian context.”

Houston Diaspora

The Maduro government has stifled foreign voting by putting up barriers to voter registration outside Venezuela. A lack of consular services also complicates the process. In Houston and across the country, Venezuelan embassies closed after the two countries severed diplomatic relations in 2019. That leaves no place to vote.

This means there will be no voting for Venezuelans in Houston, including Victor.

However, Venezuelans in Houston and elsewhere in the diaspora are organizing remotely to promote democratic participation in Venezuela, said Jorge Vergara, director of the Houston chapter of Machado’s opposition group, Comando Con Venezuela.

“We got the message out that if you can’t exercise your right to vote, ask two friends, three family members or three people you know in Venezuela to vote,” Vergara said. “And that gave hope to many Venezuelans.”

Vergara said the opposition coalition hopes for a “peaceful and orderly” transition of power in Venezuela. Despite the authoritarian context, he still believes Venezuelans can find a way out of the country’s crisis through democratic means.

“Voting is the key to bringing back all Venezuelans,” Vergara said.

Victor hopes to watch from Houston as a new party wins the presidency of Venezuela for the first time since he left office 18 years ago.

“Venezuelans will not let them commit fraud,” he said.

“We can’t live here”

Venezuela has seen one of the largest migrations in recent years outside an active war zone.

Most of them live in South America, primarily Colombia, but also Ecuador, Peru and Brazil. But a record number of Venezuelans managed to get to the United States last year. Nearly 335,000 Venezuelans were apprehended by U.S. Customs and Border Protection last year, a 77% increase from the previous year.

Now another group of Venezuelans may be preparing to leave.

Vergara says her friends and family who remain in Venezuela are all considering leaving after the election.

“If Maduro clings to power, I will have nothing to do but pack my bags and leave with my family,” they tell him. “Where, I don’t know. But here, we can’t live.”

Diego Chaves-González, director of the Latin America and Caribbean Initiative at the Migration Policy Institute, said there will likely be an increase in Venezuelan immigration in the coming months, regardless of the election outcome. Some people who are considering migrating may have decided to stay in Venezuela to vote, but will leave regardless, he said.

“They have difficulty accessing health care, providing a good education for their children, finding good sustainable employment that allows them to feed their families,” Chaves-González said.

The U.S. electoral landscape could also impact migration, as people try to calculate when they will be most likely to reach and cross the U.S.-Mexico border, Chaves-González added.

However, the Venezuelan diaspora is still largely concentrated in South America, which is why Chaves-González encouraged the United States to invest in helping South American countries better integrate Venezuelan migrants. This would have a ripple effect on the southern border of the United States if more Venezuelans could build their lives, find jobs and have access to health care and education in neighboring countries.

Whatever the outcome, countries must prepare for greater Venezuelan migration.

“People are desperate,” Mr. Chaves-González said. “Even if someone wins an election, Venezuela is not going to recover overnight.”

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