July ends hot and August begins hot

In my opinion, the term “excessive” may be a bit of an exaggeration on the part of the CCP, but there will be plenty of criticism to be had.

As it stands, we have had good results so far in July. Precipitation has been patchy due to the nature of cellular convection. To give you an idea of ​​what I mean by patchy coverage, here are the precipitation totals from last Tuesday morning.

Precipitation in Buffalo has been near normal, but a slight deficit will develop Monday. The average temperature has been 2.3 degrees above the July average, and that surplus will increase slightly by the 31st. Our highest July temperature so far has been 89 degrees. Lake Erie at Buffalo, after reaching 77 degrees, is now at 76 degrees, or 3 degrees above average. With warming underway, that temperature will likely increase another degree or two.

There are plenty of festivals happening this weekend, and none of them will be rainy.

Both days will be dominated by high pressure, with seasonable warmth on Saturday. A ridge of high pressure of Canadian origin will sit atop our region, providing very light breezes for safe, slow sailing on both lakes, as well as comfortable humidity.

Abundant sunshine will return Sunday, with a light southwest flow and wave heights again averaging 1 foot or less on both lakes.

UV indices will be high both days. Even with comfortable humidity, the lack of wind will make it warm on the festival streets. A local breeze off Lake Ontario will likely drop temperatures a few degrees by mid- to late afternoon on both days across much of the Niagara border. But inland, highs on Sunday will reach the upper 80s, up significantly from Saturday’s low 80s (cooler on the lakeshores).

By Monday, the word “warm” will come into play, but there will be just a little more moisture left in the southwest flow.

On Tuesday, dew points will reach uncomfortable levels, reaching the 60s to near 70 degrees. Under partly sunny skies, at least a few showers and thunderstorms will occur, with patchy coverage. High temperatures will reach the 80s.

The dampness will persist Wednesday. An approaching weak cold front will likely trigger more widespread but still scattered showers and thunderstorms on a humid day, with highs in the 80s.

Only a weak bubble of high pressure behind the front will bring us slightly reduced moisture on Thursday, and only a few scattered showers could persist, mainly in the Southern Tier.

There will be no cooling behind this weak front, with Thursday’s high temperatures in the 80s to 85s.

Friday will be very hot and humid, with some sunshine and a few scattered showers possible. “Stifling” would be a good word to describe it.

Whether these conditions meet the subjective standard of “excessive” heat is debatable, but it is safe to say that these days will be considered the hottest days of summer. In the CPC’s 8-14 day temperature forecast, there is a high confidence level of 70-80% in warmer than average conditions in Western New York for most or all of these days.

Looking at the large-scale upper air pattern that is shaping up for the start of the Erie County Fair, I can’t venture to predict precipitation risks that far in advance. The ensemble averages are in good agreement, however, the warmest weather in the country will be to the west, under a heat-dome-shaped ridge of high pressure. The slight decrease in Great Lakes flow indicates that by August 7, there will be at least some subtle relief from the heat for fairgoers.

By August 11, this general trend of warmer temperatures remaining in the West appears to be continuing.

None of this means it will be cool at the fair, but it looks like excessive heat won’t be a problem, if you stay away from the ghost peppers.

At this time, the many wildfires burning in western Canada and parts of the western United States are not carrying significant ground-level smoke into our region. In the short term, Canadian smoke forecasts are keeping actual concentrations well away from our homes.

Fortunately, the Canadian Drought Monitor report shows that conditions are significantly better in Ontario and Quebec compared to last summer. These are the provinces where most of our smoke comes from.

These conditions could deteriorate later in the summer. According to the US Drought Monitor, no abnormal drought conditions have been detected in New York State as of Tuesday morning.

Rainfall totals in western New York will be patchy starting Tuesday after a dry spell ends. Gardeners will likely need to water more by next week.

Normally, I wouldn’t call 82 degrees “extremely hot.” ​​But Climate Central, an independent climate research group, has assigned that number to athletes in training. In Buffalo, the temperature increase hasn’t been as significant as in the South. For example, in Charlotte, North Carolina, Climate Central has set the threshold at 92 degrees, and there’s been a really sharp increase in dangerously oppressive conditions for athletes (and outdoor workers) in Charlotte.

Our 82-degree threshold for Buffalo is based on statistical trends and our degree of heat acclimatization. The increase and threshold are not that extreme, although this type of heat still poses a danger to athletes in training when proper precautions are not taken.

Interestingly, Rochester (a warmer city than Buffalo due to its distance from the prevailing Lake Erie breeze) has not seen such an increase.

This is not to say that there has been no warming in Rochester. Minimum nighttime temperatures, a separate category, have increased in this region and across much of the country, and average warming has been measured throughout the year. This is a limited category, focusing on a particular segment of the population.