2024 NFL Betting Preview: Houston Texans to Finish Second in AFC South

The 2024 NFL is fast approaching, with all 32 teams reporting to training camp in mid-to-late July. Last season, I hit 61% of my teams and totals for Circa Million V and the NFL playoffs. To prepare for the year ahead, I’m going to preview each team and give my favorite bet for the entire season, as well as record projections for each. These are mostly “picks,” but I’ll tell you which bets are “in the bag.” The Houston Texans and the AFC South are my top priorities.

To everyone’s surprise, the Houston Texans is passed from from worst to first in 2023. After finishing 3-13-1 in 2022, the Texans surpassed their 6.5 win total with a 10-7 record last season. They beat the Indianapolis Colts in a winner-take-all AFC South game in Week 18. Then Houston crushed the Cleveland Browns in the 2024 AFC Wild Card game before being eliminated from the playoffs by the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round.

RELATED: Texans expected to be really good, but GM Nick Caserio won’t listen

They did this with a rookie quarterback (CJ Stroud) and head coach (DeMeco Ryans) and the most “adjusted games lost” due to injuries in the NFL, according to FTNFantasy.com. Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons of all time and earned the 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. The second overall pick threw 25 touchdowns and five interceptions with an NFL-best 273.9 passing yards per game and the sixth-best QB rating (100.8).

Texans QB CJ Stroud during a 2024 AFC Wild Card game against the Cleveland Browns at NRG Stadium in Houston. (Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports)

Houston management invested in the roster with Stroud on a rookie deal. The Texans acquired WR Stefon Diggs Buffalo Bills and signed former Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon in free agency. Diggs made four Pro Bowls and two All-Pro teams during his four seasons in Buffalo. He was Bills QB Josh Allen reference guy as Allen has emerged as one of the NFL’s top five quarterbacks. Mixon had his fourth 1,000-yard rushing season in 2023 and is an upgrade for Houston’s backfield.

Like last year’s draft, Houston passed on Ryans, a defensive-minded coach. The Texans traded up to take the edge defender and the NFL’s top 2023 defensive rookie of the year, Will Anderson Jr., third overall in the 2023 draft. During free agency, they signed the four-time Pro Bowler Danielle Hunter and ferryman Denico Autrywho had a career-best 11.5 sacks last year to start alongside Anderson on the defensive line.

With that in mind, Houston is in “win now” mode before likely having to “reset the market” with Stroud’s contract extension. But the AFC is loaded and the AFC South is sneakily good. So what are the appropriate expectations for the Texans, and how can we make money on them this season?

Houston Texans 2024: According to the odds

Courtesy of DraftKings at 2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 21.

• Super Bowl: +1600
• AFC: +850
• Division: +105
• Playoffs: Yes (-190) | No (+150)
• 9.5 wins: Over (-140) | Under (+120)

There’s no value in any of these deals. Sure, the Texans have improved. Stroud is a legitimate NFL MVP contender, his offensive line will be healthier, and Houston’s WR corps, led by Nico Collinshas a top-five ceiling. However, their division improved this offseason, and regression metrics work against the Texans.

For example, they are going from a last-place schedule to a first-place schedule. According to Warren Sharp, Houston is 26th in strength of schedule (32nd being the toughest) based on their opponent’s projected win total in Las Vegas. The Texans were 7-3 in one-run games in 2023, +10 in turnover differential, and had an expected win total of 9.2.

However, I was very optimistic about Houston last season and I don’t want to disappear this year. The Texans should win 10 or more games as long as Stroud is healthy. He could be anywhere from the second to tenth best quarterback this season. Unofficially, I predict Houston will finish 10-7 and second in the AFC South behind the Jacksonville Jaguars.

‘Best Bet’ for Houston Texans in 2024: Nico Collins Leads NFL in Receiving Yards (+2900) at FanDuel

I left myself an out in the introduction by saying “These are mostly ‘picks,’ but I’ll tell you which bets are ‘in the bag.'” Well, this is an actual bet that I have in my 2024 NFL portfolio. Originally, I liked “CJ Stroud to have the most passing yards (+750).” While I’m still confident that bet is a winner, the Collins bet has a bigger payout and similar odds of winning.

Stroud is rightfully the second-best betting choice to lead the NFL in passing, while Collins is tied for the 11th-best odds to lead the NFL in receiving. He caught 80 balls for 1,297 yards in a breakout season last year. Collins ranked seventh in receiving yards per game, third in yards per target and second in yards per route run (according to Pro Football Focus).

He and Stroud only played 15 games in 2023. If they play all 17 games this season and Houston’s offensive line has a normal chance of health, Stroud and Collins will be fine. Plus, adding Diggs this offseason helps Collins more than it hurts him since opponents won’t be able to double-team him with Diggs on the field.

Collins is projected to be in the top five to lead the NFL in receiving yards this year behind Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill, Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb, Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson and Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase. BET A QUARTER UNIT on TEXANS WR NICO COLLINS TO LEAD NFL IN RECEIVING YARDS IN 2024.

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