A rainy week is coming to Houston. Here’s how much rain to expect.

Southeast Texas has not been short on rain so far this year. In July, 6.8 inches of rain has already fallen at George Bush Intercontinental Airport, most of it from Hurricane Beryl. This is the fourth consecutive month of above-average rainfall in Houston.

Through July 20, Houston has already recorded 42.8 inches of rain this year. That’s nearly 15 inches above average, and the sixth-wettest start to a year on record.

Most areas of the Houston metro area will be dry to start the day Sunday. Skies will be partly cloudy with low temperatures between 70 and 80 degrees. Temperatures will rise quickly, reaching near 90 degrees by 11 a.m. Afternoon highs are expected between 90 and 95 degrees, with cooler temperatures near the coast.

Although the highest rain risks won’t be felt until later in the week, scattered thunderstorms are also expected Sunday. First, thunderstorms will develop along the Gulf Coast in the morning, from Lake Jackson to Galveston.

By midday and early afternoon, a few thunderstorms could move inland and affect the Houston metro area. The thunderstorms will be scattered, so not everyone will see rain. The chance of thunderstorms in Houston is about 50%.

Monday and Tuesday: Rainfall risks will increase early in the week as an area of ​​low pressure and an associated cold front move over Texas. During the first part of the week, most weather models predict the heaviest rain will occur north and west of Houston, but scattered thunderstorms are still expected.

Wednesday and Thursday: As the cold front moves south, Houston will have the highest chance of experiencing very heavy rainfall. During this time, the Weather Prediction Center has placed Houston at a Level 2 flash flood risk. Due to already saturated ground, flooding will be possible with just a few inches of rain.

Fortunately, heavy rainfall and cloud cover will lead to unseasonably mild temperatures. Highs are expected to reach 27°C on Tuesday, followed by 27°C on Wednesday and Thursday. That’s 5 to 10 degrees below average for late July.

There is still some uncertainty about exactly how much rain will fall in Southeast Texas, but weather models are starting to get a better idea of ​​what is coming. Much of Southeast Texas can expect a total of 3 to 5 inches of rain over the next week, with isolated higher amounts also possible.

The heaviest precipitation is expected wherever the cold front stops. If the front stays further north than expected, precipitation totals could decrease. However, if the front moves closer than expected Monday and Tuesday, precipitation totals could be higher. Stay tuned to houstonchronicle.com/weather for daily updates.