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Houthi drone attacks Tel Aviv: How significant is the attack? | News on the Israel-Palestine conflict

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The Yemeni Houthi group has claimed responsibility for the drone attack that struck Tel Aviv, Israel, overnight, killing one person and injuring eight.

Israeli media identified the dead man as 50-year-old Yevgeny Ferder, who had moved to Israel from Belarus at the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Last night’s attack is unique. It is the first time the group has hit Tel Aviv, but the Houthis have been waging a sustained campaign against targets they believe to be linked to Israel since the devastating war in Gaza began in October.

What happened?

The drone struck central Tel Aviv in the early hours of Friday morning. The attack site itself is said to be near several hotels, many of which house refugees from Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. A US embassy is also located near the attack site.

“An initial investigation indicates that the explosion in Tel Aviv was caused by the crash of an aerial target and no sirens were activated. The incident is being thoroughly investigated,” the Israeli military said in a statement, attributing its inability to detect the drone to human error rather than a system failure.

Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari said in a video released Friday evening that the plane hit a residential building. He said the drone was a Samad-3, an Iranian-made aircraft that had been modified to increase its range. Iran has not commented on the attack or the Israeli allegations.

According to Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree, the aircraft was a new type of drone called “Jaffa,” which is capable of flying undetected through Israel’s extensive air defense systems.

How unusual is that?

Although Tel Aviv is only 80 kilometers from Gaza, it has been almost spared from the carnage that has been unfolding in the enclave since October. More than 38,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s merciless war against Gaza.

The drone attack on Tel Aviv, the center of much of Israel’s diplomatic functions, indicates the growing sphere of influence of the Houthi arsenal, analysts say.

The Houthi group has used drones extensively in its recent campaign. However, almost all of the rockets and drones fired against Israel have been intercepted and none are known to have reached Tel Aviv.

“The Houthis have claimed responsibility for many attacks on Israel before, but there is little evidence that most of them were anywhere near hits, let alone as many deaths and injuries as this one,” independent Yemen analyst Nick Brumfield told Al Jazeera. “Notably, this is the first publicly confirmed attack by the Houthis in the Mediterranean, and not the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden.” Along these vital sea routes, the Houthis have attacked numerous vessels they believe have links to Israel.

In addition, “they have claimed responsibility for attacks on Haifa in collaboration with Iran-backed groups in Iraq, but so far that seems to be more of a showmanship exercise,” Brumfield said. “It’s a big deal.”

Is this something new?

Not really. The Houthis have been using drones as a weapon of war on a large scale for some time, both from the air and from the sea.

The Houthi drones are also a frequent target of Western attacks. The United Kingdom, France and the United States report destroying unmanned targets before they could be used by the enemy.

“I believe last night’s attack is part of the ongoing escalation by the Houthis,” said Maysaa Shuja al-Deen of Yemen’s Center for Strategic Studies in Sanaa, suggesting that incidents of Houthi drones reaching distant targets will become more frequent. “What is interesting is the target and the long range,” she told Al Jazeera.

Could this trigger an escalation throughout the region?

In the short term, this is unlikely.

Since the standoff between Iran and Israel in April, both countries and their allies have been well aware of the danger that an Israeli war against Gaza could affect the entire Middle East.

Nevertheless, Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has already threatened revenge. He not only announced that the country’s defense systems would be strengthened, but also that he would “take revenge on anyone who harms the State of Israel or carries out terror against it.”

“Israel will most likely feel compelled to take action because a person has been killed,” Brumfield said, referring to past cases of isolated Israeli attacks in Yemen for which the attacks have not been claimed. “You could imagine Israel doing something like that now.”

It is difficult to say whether Israel will undertake “more serious retaliatory strikes such as the killing of Houthi commanders, as we have seen with Hezbollah in Lebanon.” The reason for this is “the unclear status of Israeli intelligence in Yemen,” said Brumfield.

Are the Houthis actually an Iranian proxy force?

The Houthis are known to be allied with Iran. However, that does not mean that Iran ordered last night’s attack.

Nevertheless, there is little doubt that Tehran also supports the group with weapons and their components.

However, it is uncertain at best how precise Tehran’s control is over a rebel group that has consistently proven unpredictable.

“Iran has long pursued a strategy of enabling non-state allies to build their own missiles. There is also strong evidence that the Houthis most likely have domestic production capabilities,” said Fabian Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

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