Buffalo’s Hottest Year Yet, More Seasonal Heat to Come

To date, Buffalo National Weather Service statistics show that this is the warmest year on record in Buffalo. Our records go back to 1871.

Of the three official weather sites maintained by the Buffalo Forecast Office, Buffalo, Rochester and Watertown all rank as the “hottest on record” through July 18. That heat narrowly surpasses Buffalo’s 2012 record heat. That was the year March started the year with a spike. There were three record highs over 80 degrees, along with five days in the 70s. Five of the first six months of the year were in Buffalo’s top 10 for heat.

The El Niño phenomenon, which faded a few months ago, has further exacerbated the ongoing global warming. Globally, 2023 was the warmest year on record, although most of North America was not the continent that experienced the greatest warming. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/NOAA details last year’s global spike.

The year 2024 is on track to surpass 2023 as the warmest year on record. In fact, NOAA reports that it has been 47 years since the world last experienced a colder-than-average year.

For those who still try to deny anthropogenic (man-made) global warming, a typical argument is that the “dirty 30s,” the 1930s, were warmer. This is simply untenable given the global record. The 1930s, the Dust Bowl era, were both very hot and, in winter, often very cold in the United States, during a decade when drought was often dominant. Dry air warms and cools more easily than moist air.

But on a global scale, there is simply no comparison between the heat of the 1930s and that of the last ten years.

The consequences of over-reliance on fossil fuels are being felt across much of the world. Carbon dioxide, methane, and increased water vapor associated with increased evaporation due to warming are the three main greenhouse gases linked to warming.

Despite the record heat so far, Buffalo has escaped the extremes of other years. We had three days over 90 degrees in June and none in July. In July 2020, Buffalo had its longest heat wave on record, with eight straight days of 90 degrees or more. As always, things have been and are worse elsewhere. Washington, D.C., just finished a streak of four straight days over 100 degrees, accompanied by scorching humidity. They had 26 days over 90 degrees, including five days over 100 degrees. Miami broke its record for the highest heat index and is on pace for its hottest year ever.

One weather element we couldn’t escape last week was severe weather and a record number of tornado warnings issued by NWS offices in Buffalo, Albany and Binghamton.

No such threat is looming on the horizon.

The weather forecast changes from Friday’s perfection with very low humidity to Saturday’s with slightly warmer but still dry conditions. A light southwest wind of less than 10 knots will produce waves of 30 centimeters or less on both lakes. With plenty of sunshine, the UV index will be high.

On Sunday, humidity will be slightly higher, but levels will remain moderate under partly sunny skies. With very little wind, waves will once again average less than 30 centimetres on the lakes. Temperatures will remain mild as usual, around 27°C.

Monday is expected to be milder, with temperatures around 80 degrees. With only a light breeze, it will be warm for many, although humidity remains moderate.

By Tuesday, the likelihood of scattered and occasional showers and thunderstorms under partly sunny skies could give a more humid character to the quiet air mass.

Currently, Wednesday looks more unstable due to the proximity of two frontal boundaries. Wednesday’s temperatures around 80 degrees will look more stable than Tuesday’s.

Despite the moisture added to the model, there is no indication of a risk of severe weather. By Thursday, the approach of a weak low pressure system and its trailing cold front will likely increase the likelihood of a period of showers and thunderstorms. The weather will be humid, but with the added cloud cover, highs will only reach around 80 degrees.

On Friday, we will be under the influence of a dry high pressure area behind the front, so humidity will drop while temperatures will remain seasonal.

In the extended range, the upper air ensemble averages show the warmer southern ridge of high pressure moving toward the southeastern United States. This pattern would promote more extreme heat and humidity over that part of the country and likely increase heat over the Great Lakes. However, heat in our region would likely remain below extreme levels.

This warmth looks set to keep us at above-average temperatures through the end of the month and early August, even as the warm ridge retreats westward.

The Climate Prediction Center/CPC is in line with this thinking in its 8- to 14-day temperature probability forecasts.

Below-average trends observed in parts of Texas and the South are associated with expected heavier tropical precipitation.

The CCP has also just released its new outlook for August.

While I remain less confident about the outlook that extends so far into the future as uncertainty increases, there is currently no evidence to support a fundamental shift to a colder pattern as August progresses.