Sleeping Teams, Failures, and Bold Predictions: The Houston Texans in 2024

Welcome to the 2024 fantasy football season predictions. Chris Meaney and Daniel Kelley will be going through the league team by team all summer long. They will be picking 2024 fantasy football season predictions, 2025 fantasy football season predictions. Sometimes they will agree! Sometimes they will be complete opposites! And that’s fine, because they will defend their positions, and you can decide for yourself which side you are on. Today: the Houston Texans.

Below, they take on the team, starting with their choices in “The Answers,” then expanding on their choices in “The Explanation.”

2024 Sleeping Teams, Failures, and Bold Predictions: Houston Texans

The answers

Favorite sleeper

Meaney:Joe Mixon
Kelley:Jawhar Jordan

The biggest bust

Meaney: Dell Tank
Kelley: CJ Stroud

Bold prediction

Meaney:Dalton Schultz hits waiver limits by Week 3
Kelley:Stefon Diggs is closer to the Texans’ WR4 than WR2

The explanations

Sleepers

Metaphor: Joe Mixon

It’s hard to find an unexpected player in Houston, as most of their weapons go in the top 70 picks. The RB15 price tag (ADP 44.45) for Joe Mixon in high-stakes leagues seems fair, but he has top-10 potential at the position. Mixon just finished as the RB5 overall pick. In fact, Mixon has finished as the RB5, RB12, and RB3 over the last three seasons. There really shouldn’t be a change in production with the move from Cincinnati to Houston. We have CJ Stroud leading in pass attempts and passing yards in our projections, but the Bengals ranked second in passing percentage last season, and Mixon still managed to rack up 1,034 rushing yards. Mixon will also play behind a better offensive line in Houston than he did in Cincinnati. Regardless, the 27-year-old has never really been efficient (4.1 career YPC), but he has four 1,000-yard seasons in the last six years. He also has 154 receptions in his last three seasons. The backfield belongs to him, which includes every goal-line touchdown on what will be a great offensive team. Let’s keep in mind how strong Devin Singletary looked when he was receiving every touchdown late in 2023. Mixon isn’t a sexy pick, but he’s a rock-solid RB2 and good enough to be your hero RB if you want to start WR/WR.

Kelley: Jawhar Jordan

This is obviously a player who is a deep sleeper. But let’s take a look at the Texans’ RB depth chart:

• Joe Mixon: Mixon turns 28 next week, but he’s averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry over the last five years (3.99) and is coming off the worst full-season PFF rushing grade of his career. He was a cut candidate in Cincinnati the last 2-3 years before they traded him to Houston. He was tied for 52^nd of 63 qualified backs in yards after contact per attempt.
• Dameon Pierce: After a surprise rookie season in 2022, with nearly 1,000 yards in just 13 games, Pierce was one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy last year, failing to even 3 yards per carry (2.9) and being benched for Devin Singletary
• Dare Ogunbowale: 30 years old and has never exceeded 62 carries in a season.
• JJ Taylor, British Brooks, Troy Hairston, Andrew Beck: Two backs, an undrafted free agent in 2024 and an undrafted free agent in 2020 who has 156 yards in four years.
• Jawhar Jordan: A sixth-round rookie who figures to be a great outside lineup candidate (akin to Kyle Shanahan, who Bobby Slowik brought to Houston), and has enough talent as a returner to keep him on the active roster.

The Texans certainly want Mixon to be the star player in 2024, and they’re moving like he’s the guy. But if Mixon’s age and deterioration prove too much, what’s the alternative? Pierce has already failed, most of the others are “never-seen,” and Brooks had just 154 touches in six years of college because of injury. Jordan is an extreme sleeper, but in deep leagues, he’s worth a few late-round picks.

Busts

Meaney: Dell Reservoir

Tank Dell is being drafted with the 34th receiver heading into August. The fact that he’s being drafted at or so close to Stefon Diggs is shocking to me. There’s really no reason to see three Houston receivers in the first 34 picks. I don’t think Diggs is being cut; he was just cut from Buffalo’s offense last season. After Nico Collins, either Diggs or Dell is going to fail to provide value, and I’ll lean toward Dell, who I think will be third on the team in targets and receptions. I like the player, but there’s too much going on and I don’t think the volume will be there. I understand the scope of the top ball because Dell has 709 yards on just 47 receptions (15.1 per catch). It’s criminal that George Pickens, Tee Higgins, Amari Cooper, Chris Godwin, and Terry McLaurin are all going after Dell.

Kelley: CJ Stroud

In 2018, Baker Mayfield was a rookie. He didn’t start until Week 4, ultimately playing in all but two games, but he went on to break the rookie record for touchdown passes with 27, including four games with threes or more. He finished as the 16th QB that year, and then his team went out and got a superstar receiver in Odell Beckham Jr. in the offseason. The hype that followed Mayfield’s first year, combined with a rising offense and the addition of a star, made him a fantastic hypnotist, and he rocketed to QB4 in ADP the following year (which, yes, was ridiculous at the time).

CJ Stroud isn’t a perfect Baker Mayfield analogue, but he played in all but two games as a rookie and made a splash, finishing QB11 in fantasy. He threw for 23 touchdowns (4 fewer than Mayfield) but made up for it with 3 rushing touchdowns compared to Mayfield’s 0 as a rookie. His offense added Stefon Diggs this offseason, and Stroud’s excitement combined with Diggs’ arrival puts him at QB5 in ADP. Is there room for Stroud to get there? It’s hard to see. He’s not much of a rusher (11.1 rushing yards per game), which limits his ceiling. Stroud would need to improve his passing yards by several hundred (to nearly 5,000) and/or increase his touchdown total from 23 to 30 to provide value at this ADP. He appears to be a great quarterback, but he could be and not reach that ADP.

Bold predictions

Meaney: Dalton Schultz on waivers list by Week 3

I could have taken Dalton Schultz as a bust, but his average price of TE13 at the 130th pick isn’t something that’s going to hurt you. However, it doesn’t have to. I’d make one of the top nine tight ends a priority, and if you’re playing in a premium TE league, pass on Schultz for Pat Freiermuth, TJ Hockenson, Hunter Henry, Tyler Conklin, or Isaiah Likely. As mentioned above, there are too many mouths to feed in Houston. Schultz will likely be the most impacted by the addition of Diggs, especially in the red zone.

Kelley: Stefon Diggs is closer to Texans’ WR4 than WR2

My initial prediction for the Texans was that Nico Collins would be the only fantasy starter in the receiver room, but I can’t go that far because Tank Dell was a mainstay before his injury last year, and if he comes back healthy, he’ll be a fantasy factor as well. But I just don’t think the team can support three fantasy-relevant receivers, and Stefon Diggs will be the odd man out. Diggs is coming off his worst season since leaving the Vikings, and it was a pretty steep drop-off — through Week 9, he was the WR3 in PPR, but by Week 10, he was the WR44. He averaged 7.8 receptions, 10.8 targets, and 92.7 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game in the first half, then 4.6 receptions, 7.9 targets, 43.6 yards and 0.1 touchdown in the second. Yes, the change at offensive coordinator in Buffalo was significant, but it’s worth considering where Diggs, now 30, is as a star receiver. Immediately after trading him, the Texans voided the remainder of his contract after 2024. Sure, maybe that will motivate Diggs in his quest for another payday, but also, maybe the Texans weren’t excited about him as a long-term investment.