Best (and worst) scenarios for the 2024 Atlanta Falcons season

“Welcome to Atlanta, where Kirk Cousins ​​and the next-gen Falcons got off to a rocky start to the season before bouncing back last week with a win over New Orleans. And tonight, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and in front of our Prime Video audience, they can take control of the NFC South with a victory over Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.”

— Al Michaels on October 3rd, maybe.

That’s a perfectly reasonable, and perhaps even probable, thing to do, Michaels might say as he opens the NFL’s Week 5 Thursday Night Football broadcast. The Falcons have a tricky start to the season, balanced by home games within the division that will give them a chance to bounce back if necessary.

But we’re not here today to talk about likely outcomes. Today, we’re going to talk about the best-case scenarios — and, sorry, worst-case scenarios — that could happen in 2024 for Atlanta, which opens training camp July 24 under new head coach Raheem Morris. In the spirit of optimism, we’ll start with the best-case scenarios.

Five optimistic scenarios

Falcons open with a 2-1 score

Sure, it’s possible the Falcons start the season 3-0…or 6-0…or whatever, but let’s stick to reality. They open the season at home against Pittsburgh, then travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles on Monday Night Football before returning home to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 3.

The Steelers will remain a complete mystery on offense with two new quarterbacks and a new offensive coordinator (more on that later). The Eagles will be motivated, especially early on and on national television, to prove that last year’s decadence was a fluke. The Chiefs will be the Chiefs.

If Atlanta, while implementing a new offense and defense, wins two of those games, it will signal that something different is happening.

Kirk Cousins ​​throws for 4,500 yards

Cousins ​​reached his best single-season passing yardage total in 2022, with 4,547 yards, and he led the NFC in touchdown passes when he was injured in Week 8 last season. Atlanta’s offense has topped 4,000 passing yards in five of the last six seasons, so Cousins ​​is in position to surpass his career high in his 13th year if a young and inexperienced receiving corps can rise to the challenge.

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Defensive stars shine

That would mean another big season for safety Jessie Bates, who had six interceptions in his first season in Atlanta, as well as a reinvigorated defensive tackle Grady Jarrett and more impact from cornerback AJ Terrell. Jarrett has promised he’s as fired up for his 10th year as he’s ever been after missing nine games last year with a torn ACL. If he can get close to his career-high 7 1/2 sacks, it will have positive effects on the entire defensive line. As for Terrell, he’s in the final year of his contract unless he signs a new deal in the next two months, so this would be a good time to get his first interception since 2021 (and maybe a few more).

Falcons running back Bijan Robinson could have a big season in the new offensive system. (Norm Hall/Getty Images)

Bijan Robinson runs for 1,300 yards

This may not be the best-case scenario for Tyler Allgeier, who deserves the kind of workload that would allow Robinson to stay under that total, but the Falcons drafted Robinson in the top 10 to be a star, and he needs big numbers for him to be. Kyren Williams ran for 1,144 yards in this offensive system last season with the Rams, so the potential for big numbers is there if Robinson proves he’s ready for that type of workload. As a rookie, he carried the ball 214 times for 976 yards.

A real home advantage

The Falcons have a losing record at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Their .474 winning percentage over their seven years in the building is 22nd best in the league during that span.

On a more visceral level, every Atlanta fan who attends a home game knows the feeling of being in the building and being outnumbered by the opposing team’s fans. If the Falcons turn things around, that could change. The biggest test this year will be Week 9 against Dallas. If Atlanta is headed in the right direction, the number of Falcons fans should at least match the number of Cowboys fans in the building.

GO FURTHER

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Five worst-case scenarios

Steelers score 40

Former Falcons head coach and current Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith started putting together his Week 1 game plan as soon as the NFL released the schedule. Smith has four things going for him in this game. First, he knows the weaknesses of Atlanta’s defensive personnel. Second, he has two athletic quarterbacks in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Third, no one in the league has any idea what his system will look like at the start of the season. Fourth, he really, really wants to win this game.

The Falcons’ all-time high under Smith was 37 points, and they’ve scored 30 or more points just four times in three seasons. If Pittsburgh reaches the 40-point mark, Falcons fans will leave Mercedes-Benz Stadium angry, and Smith will leave laughing.

Loss to Saints gives 0-4 start

It’s realistic to think that the Falcons could start the season 0-3, and honestly, it wouldn’t be the end of the world if they did, as they have two winnable divisional games in Weeks 4 and 5 against New Orleans and Tampa Bay. However, if the Saints win in Atlanta and drop the Falcons to 0-4, the flower will be completely wilted. Only one NFL team (the 1992 Chargers) has made the playoffs after starting 0-4.

Can the Falcons dethrone Baker Mayfield and the NFC South champion Buccaneers this season? (Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Baker is good, Bryce is better and Derek is fine

The best news for Atlanta in 2024 is that it has a new quarterback. The second-best news is that it is still in its old division, the NFC South. The Falcons went 3-3 in the division last season. They need to beat that mark this year because the non-division schedule has gotten tougher. The Falcons now have the best quarterback in the division, and they need that gap to stay pretty wide. If Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield has another good year, Carolina’s Bryce Young takes a big step forward, and New Orleans’ Derek Carr plays average football, the divisional games get tougher.

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Defeat in Minnesota

The Falcons and Vikings essentially swapped team-building philosophies this offseason. Atlanta decided it couldn’t win big without a veteran quarterback like Cousins ​​and spent $100 million (at least) to sign him. Minnesota decided it couldn’t win big by committing that much capital to Cousins ​​and let him go while handing its future to a rookie quarterback.

That rookie quarterback, JJ McCarthy, will almost certainly start when Atlanta visits Minnesota on Dec. 8. If the Vikings replace their old, expensive quarterback with a young, cheap rookie, it will make Minnesota look like they made the right choice.

Nothing to play for in week 18

The Carolina Panthers travel to Atlanta for the final game of the regular season. Everyone expects Carolina to be out of the playoff race by then. If the Falcons are out of the playoff race and this game has no stakes, it will be a depressing scene at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

(Lead photos by Kirk Cousins ​​and Arthur Smith: Brynn Anderson/Associated Press; Joe Sargent/Getty Images)