Atlanta United vs New York City FC Predictions: Atlanta’s Home Struggles to Continue

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Atlanta United vs New York City FC prediction: bets, context and composition

Best Bets for Atlanta United vs New York City FC

• Match to be drawn with odds of @3.60 on 10bet and @3.40 ​​on Parions Sport, which is equivalent to an implied probability of 27.8%/29.4%.
• Daniel Rios is expected to score anytime at odds of @2.60 on 10bet, indicating an implied probability of 38.5%.
• Under 2.5 goals overall at odds of @2.25 on 10bet, representing an implied probability of 44.4%.

We expect a very close draw between Atlanta and New York with a final score of 1-1.

Our analysis: the form of the two teams

Atlanta United hosts New York City FC at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Wednesday night, with the teams separated by 13 points in the Eastern Conference standings.

Atlanta is saying goodbye to Caleb Wiley, who is reportedly headed to Chelsea. Wiley, who has 21 MLS starts this season, is obviously a big loss for a team currently languishing in 11th place in the Eastern Conference after three straight losses.

The Red Devils have won just four of their last eleven home games this season, making it an undeniably frustrating campaign for the Red Devils. Meanwhile, New York City FC have been tough to beat throughout the season.

After missing the playoffs in 2023, New York is well positioned to play postseason football later this year.

This is the second time these teams have met in 2024 after a draw in the Big Apple in April.

Likely Lineups for Atlanta United vs New York City FC

Atlanta United probable XI:

Guzan; Abram, Williams, Cobb; Lennon, Slisz, Muyumba, Hernandez; Lobjanidze, Rios, Silva.

New York City FC probable eleven:

Release; Ilenic, Martins, Tanasijevic, McFarlane; Parks, Haak, Perea; Wolf, Martinez, Rodriguez.

Sharing the spoils at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Atlanta is a much better team than the standings suggest. Their expected goal difference is only slightly worse than New York City’s, at +0.16 per 90 versus +0.26.

The hosts lost a few key players in the transfer window, including Caleb Wiley and Thiago Almada. While that leaves them considerably weaker for the upcoming games, this team still has a solid structure, suggesting they can try to be competitive against NYCFC.

New York have won just three of their 11 away games. An away draw against the Chicago Fire ended a three-game away losing streak. While the visitors currently have a superior team on paper, we think Atlanta will at least put up a fight here. There is merit in backing them to get a draw at 3.75.

• Atlanta United vs New York City FC Bet 1: Match to draw at 3.60 with 10bet at 3.40 on Parions Sport

Rios adds his sixth goal of the campaign

Daniel Rios has scored five goals in his last five games. He has scored in three of those games. Currently one of the most in-form players in MLS, Rios is a great bet at 2.40 to find the back of the net here.

New York’s defense has good underlying metrics, but it has kept just one clean sheet in its last four away games. Rios has been shooting more often of late, with 14 shots taken in his last five outings.

If Atlanta’s chances are to be good, Rios will have to show some grit in the final third. With Almada and Georgios Giakoumakis out, Rios is the team’s main threat, even though he has scored just five times this season.

• Atlanta United vs New York City FC Bet 2: Daniel Rios Anytime Goalscorer at 2.60 with 10bet

Low score case expected

Both teams are in the top half of the Eastern Conference in expected goals against. New York’s 13 goals conceded away from home are the best in the conference. Atlanta has scored one goal or no goals in four of its last six MLS games.

Given their poor performance away from home of late, New York will be content to stick with their good defense on the road. Atlanta’s offense has had good chance creation numbers at home this season, but they lack firepower without Almada and Giakoumakis.

Like Atlanta, New York has scored just one goal or no goals in four of its last six games. Charlotte FC is the only team in the Eastern Conference top seven to have scored fewer goals than Nick Cushing’s team.

Given the price we are getting, we appreciate the value of taking the under here. A 1-1 or 1-0 either way seems a very likely outcome.

• Atlanta United vs New York City FC Bet 3: Under 2.5 Goals Total at 2.25 with 10bet