Hurricane Beryl shows Houston was unprepared for storm

As Hurricane Beryl began to reform in the Gulf of Mexico after a tumultuous and deadly journey through the Caribbean, meteorologist Matt Lanza struggled to predict the storm’s path.

Many meteorologists adhere to the axiom that “all weather models are wrong, some models are useful.” Yet even based on the inexact science of hurricane forecasting, Beryl was disconcerting. The fast-growing storm, which began early in the season, ravaged Grenada and Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane. After hitting the Yucatan Peninsula, it weakened to Category 2.

At the moment, By July 6, weather models were as confusing as the storm itself. Lanza, who co-runs the indispensable Space City Weather blog, was studying potential trajectories. The system was sent to Mexico or slightly further north into the Rio Grande Valley. Other models showed the storm could move northeast to Galveston.

The uncertainty was worrisome, especially for coastal and inland residents from Brownsville to the Bolivar Peninsula, who would soon have to decide whether to hunker down or flee to safety. Houstonians pride themselves on their ability to face and recover from whatever disaster comes their way. Yet the scar tissue from surviving previous hurricanes may have helped to make us let our guard down a bit. A small chance of what seemed like a small hurricane coming? Why worry?

The storm’s path didn’t become clear until the 48 hours before it made landfall in Matagorda on July 8. And its rapid development made it far more violent than many Houstonians expect from a Category 1 storm.

Lanza told the editorial board that this fits a pattern he and other meteorologists have been tracking for a decade: Storms intensify rapidly in the final hours of their life cycle, propelled by increasingly warm water temperatures near the Gulf Coast.

“Storms are coming ashore at their peak intensity, which means they take a little longer to slow down,” Lanza said. “So the damage is more significant inland, even with a Category 1 storm.”

That’s why many meteorologists will tell you that there’s no point comparing Beryl to previous storms that have hit the Houston area. Each hurricane is a multifaceted threat, and no two are exactly alike.

In 2008, Hurricane Ike, a Category 2 storm, was primarily a storm surge event, pushing up to 16 feet of water onto Galveston and the Bolivar Peninsula. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey, a Category 4 storm, produced virtually no storm surge but dumped up to 51 inches of rain on our region, flooding much of Houston and Harris County. Beryl, meanwhile, didn’t produce the same level of flooding as Harvey, but its 80 mph gusts knocked down trees and power lines, knocking out power to more than 2 million Houston residents.

Both Ike and Harvey taught us crucial lessons about the vulnerability of our critical infrastructure. Ike made us aware that a catastrophic storm surge could one day inundate the petrochemical complex along the Houston Ship Channel, spreading toxins across the city and dealing a severe blow to the American economy. To prevent this, the federal government has approved—though not yet funded—a $57 billion system of seawalls, dunes, and barriers that could one day protect our coastline.

Harvey, one of the costliest storms in U.S. history, led Harris County to overhaul building codes and motivated county voters to pass multibillion-dollar bonds that strengthened our flood-fighting infrastructure.

What lessons can we learn from Beryl? Here are a few.

• If Beryl proved anything, it was how devastating a low-level hurricane can be. Government officials, utilities, and residents shouldn’t dismiss a Category 1 hurricane as nothing to worry about. By the time Harvey stopped over Houston, it was a mere tropical storm, but it still managed to be probably the worst flooding storm on record in the United States. It’s astounding, for example, to hear a spokesperson for CenterPoint, Houston’s largest electric utility, tell reporters that the company didn’t anticipate Beryl would have such a significant impact on Houston. At a minimum, given CenterPoint’s shaky performance in past natural disasters, the utility should lean toward the future. on-preparing.
• Pay close attention to forecasts. Weather sources like the Houston Chronicle and Space City Weather track every storm system that crosses the Atlantic. The National Weather Service issues regular warnings about storm systems that could affect our area, sometimes multiple times a day. Even if you think a storm is almost certainly not going to hit Texas, remember that in a matter of days, Beryl moved from Mexico to the North Texas coast. A multitude of factors, from wind shear to water temperature, affect the path of a hurricane. Don’t be left without food in your pantry, gas in your car, and fully charged batteries.
• Finally, Houstonians need to prepare for storms even more seriously than we have been doing. Given that the magnitude of Beryl’s power outages could easily be repeated this year, the usual suggestion of having three to five days of non-perishable food may no longer be enough. Stock up for at least a week. And don’t wait for an official evacuation notice if you’re worried about serious damage to your home. Pack your go-bags with enough supplies to last for weeks.

There are nearly three months left before experts predict one of the most intense hurricane seasons on record. We hope Beryl will be the only Texas storm this year, but there will still be plenty of opportunities for storms to develop. Plan accordingly.