2024 Dynasty Rise, Fall, and Underdog Predictions: Houston Texans

Summer is the best time to evaluate dynasty assets and their place in the dynasty market. In this series, we’ll introduce you to one up-and-comer, one down-and-comer, and one underdog from each NFL team. We’ll cover dynasty values, potential trades, and the team’s overall outlook.

Let’s dive into the world of the Houston Texans.

Amount: Joe Mixon, RB

The Texans acquired veteran running back Mixon for a seventh-round pick in 2024. Hours later, he signed a new three-year, $27 million contract extension. While he’s expected to retain his leadership role in their new offense, Mixon offers some potential value even as he nears the age limit for running backs.

Current market value

Courtesy of DLF July ADP.

Mixon enters the 2024 season as a low-end RB2 for dynasty drafts, sitting in the middle of a group of players who look like a catch-all for late-sixth or early-seventh-round picks.

There are several factors that could explain his decline in value over the past two seasons. The most important is his age, as he will be playing at age 28 this season. Over his first seven seasons, Mixon has accumulated 1,571 rushing attempts and 347 targets, averaging 16.7 touches per game over his career.

The decline in its ADP has been gradual, with its largest drop from January to April 2023, falling 38.84 places during this period.

Future prospects

Mixon fits right into the Texans’ offense as the expected leader of that backfield. Dameon Pierce appeared to suffer a sophomore slump and was benched in favor of Devin Singletary in Week 9 of last season. Singletary has since left, giving Pierce at least a chance to play a backup role. Behind those two are Dare Ogunbowale and sixth-round rookie Jawhar Jordan, leaving little doubt as to who will get the most carries.

Mixon also brings his pass-catching chops to this offense, having had over 45 targets per season in five of his seven seasons. For reference, Singletary finished with 38 targets last season. Pierce has very little upside as a pass-catcher, which once again points to a potential three-man workload for Mixon this upcoming season.

Trading Options/Conclusion

First, let’s look at the DLF commercial analyzer to establish a baseline.

In terms of simply identifying a range of exploitable value, Mixon profiles as a mid-range second-round pick. While that’s helpful for putting a player’s value in a range, sometimes seeing what he fetches in actual trades is more beneficial. Let’s look at a few of them.

All trades listed are courtesy of DLF’s Trade Finder.

In the fourth trade, a manager sent 3.05 and 3.07 to get Mixon and Chigoziem Okonkwo. While I’m not overly optimistic about Okonkwo, getting Mixon for a pair of thirds adds a starting running back. I’m leaning more toward the Mixon side here.

In fifth place, the acquiring team sent a first-round pick in 2025 to acquire both Mixon and DeAndre Hopkins. While I personally wouldn’t send a first-round pick for Mixon in most cases, a team that is willing to win now could try to add additional pieces to make a run.

The next group is fun. In the eighth trade, we have two teams simply swapping players and it seems pretty balanced. In the ninth trade, 2.02 for Mixon, which is in the range we mentioned earlier. The tenth trade is interesting. Mixon’s former manager sends Mixon, Malik Nabers and a 2.03 to receive Christian McCaffrey and Davante Adams. Again, if I were the team that felt like two current stars away from a championship, I could see trading a solid running back, a promising rookie receiver and a pick.

Mixon finished as the RB11 in PPR points per game (15.7) last season and scored 12 total touchdowns.

Mixon is a solid, versatile running back who should maintain the type of volume his managers have become accustomed to. With all the receiving options in this offense, C.J. Stroud should be able to get the ball downfield, creating plenty of scoring opportunities for Mixon. He could have another top-12 season with double-digit touchdowns and see his dynasty value increase moderately.

Killer: Nico Collins, WR

Justin Timberlake could be credited with bringing Sexy back, But it was Nico Collins who brought back the breakout third-year term for receivers. After mostly pedestrian production in his first two seasons, Collins broke out in spectacular fashion with rookie quarterback Stroud leading the offense. He finished with career highs in every available receiving metric, leading to a meteoric rise in his dynasty value.

Current market value

After finishing WR85 and WR76 in his first two seasons, Collins finished WR11 last season and moved up to WR14.

The breakout season propelled Collins from an ADP of 142.83 to an ADP of 22 overall. Savvy drafters were already moving him up in the offseason for the 2024 season. With a new, and frankly, more exciting quarterback than Davis Mills at the helm, dynasty managers were hoping for an increase in targets and production. Both Stroud and Collins have lived up to those hopes, exceeding most expectations.

Future prospects

Collins will have to overcome many obstacles to repeat the production he showed last season. There are both returning receivers and a new one in town to discuss. Collins has shown both his potential and his potential over his three seasons. With Stroud still having opportunities to develop and improve ahead of him, Collins should remain involved in the Texans’ passing attack.

Trading Options / Conclusion

Collins’ trade value is at an all-time high. The dynasty analysis, which involves buying low and selling high, sees this as the perfect time to sell him to league teammates.

It was an impressive outing with a talented young quarterback. However, there are other immediate factors to consider. First, the addition of Stefon Diggs. Diggs commands targets at a high rate and can be quite cranky when not properly attacked.

Second, the return of Tank Dell, who had an impressive showing last season before an injury cut his rookie season short. Behind that presumed starting trio, we also have Robert Woods and Noah Brown. Not to mention capable wide receivers Joe Mixon and Dalton Schultz.

Collins has value in the long run, but his ADP is at its peak. Dynasty managers who will be fielding him could consider trading him, while those looking to acquire him could likely do so for much less if Collins can’t carry his current cost in a crowded receiving room if he fails to repeat last season’s success.

Archery: Noah Brown, Receiver

The Path to Relevance

Courtesy of 4for4 Depth Chart tool

During a two-week stretch last season, with Collins and Dell both out with injuries, Brown had back-to-back games of 150-plus receiving yards. He finished those two weeks as the WR3 and WR6, respectively.

In his first season with the Texans, Brown was the team’s fifth most targeted player, despite playing in only ten games. His 17.2 yards per reception were a team-best.

Case against him

So far in his career, Brown has been a role player who typically sees targets when players miss rather than earning targets through consistent reliability.

We recently established that this receiving core is deep and offers plenty of potential mouths to feed. With Collins, Diggs and Dell healthy at the top, it would likely take an injury for Noah Brown to see any meaningful number of targets.

Verdict

After finishing his first season with the team, the Texans thought enough of him to sign him to another short-term contract. For dynasty purposes, he’s more of a backup than a flex option with a healthy core of receivers around him. His potential is unfortunately tied to the injury status of the players in front of him. He’s shown that when called upon, he can produce. He’ll need to work hard to earn a bigger share of targets in this offense.

John Hesterman has been playing fantasy football for over a decade. His passion has spanned multiple formats. He wrote fantasy redrafts for lastwordonprofootball.com and ffstatistics.com before joining the DLF family and is a member of the FSWA. His offbeat humor comes through in his statistically-driven analysis. When he’s not writing fantasy, he can be found spending time with his family, chasing mishit golf balls, and playing video games. John is a die-hard LA Chargers and Chicago Cubs fan.

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