Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Match Prediction for 07/14/2024

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: July 14, 2024
• Place: Minute Maid Park
• Starting pitchers:
  • Max Scherzer – Rangers
  • Ronel Blanco – Astros

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros Winning Odds

The implied win percentage in sports betting represents the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It is a way for punters to assess the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by bookmakers.

Projected Win Percentage, also known as Projected Win Probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood of a team winning a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Texas Rangers on July 14, 2024 at Minute Maid Park, fans can expect an intriguing matchup in the American League West. The Astros, with a 50-45 record, are having an above-average season and currently have the edge in the standings over the Rangers (45-50), who have struggled to find consistency.

This game marks the third in the series between these two rivals. The Astros have an implied win probability of 55% according to betting markets, while advanced metrics suggest this game could be closer than expected. THE BAT X, MLB’s leading projection system, gives the Rangers a slight edge with a 51% win probability, suggesting the Rangers are a good bet.

On the mound, the Astros will start Ronel Blanco, a right-hander with a deceptive 2.53 ERA this season. However, his 4.20 xFIP indicates he got lucky and could regress. Blanco’s projected average performance today, including 5.4 innings and 2.8 earned runs, puts him in a vulnerable position against a Rangers offense that ranks 17th in MLB.

The Rangers counter with veteran Max Scherzer, who owns a solid 3.09 ERA but also shows signs of overachieving given his 4.30 xFIP. Scherzer’s projections for today include 5.5 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs, and a moderate number of strikeouts. Notably, the Astros’ lineup, ranked No. 1 in team batting average and No. 6 overall, poses a significant challenge for Scherzer, especially given his low strikeout rate against a team that strikes out the least in MLB.

Offensively, the Astros are in great shape, with Joey Loperfido leading the charge over the past week with a .400 batting average and a 1.417 OPS. Meanwhile, Corey Seager has been a standout for the Rangers, hitting three homers and posting a 1.220 OPS in his last six games.

The Astros’ seventh-ranked bullpen dwarfs the Rangers’ 20th-ranked relief corps and could play a crucial role in the late innings. With both offenses capable of scoring runs and Scherzer’s recent luck potentially running out, this game could come down to bullpens and timely hits.

Texas Rangers Quick Look:

Max Scherzer’s fastball velocity is down 1 mph this season (92.1 mph) from what it was last year (93.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component of fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity declines will likely see poorer results.

In terms of wOBA and overall offense, Josh Smith has been very fortunate this year. His .368 rate was significantly inflated compared to the Statcast-based version of expected wOBA (xwOBA) from the leading projection system (THE BAT X) at .315.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA.

The Texas Rangers hitters rank 29th in MLB in power this year as a unit, measuring their 90.7 mph exit velocity on fly balls.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a good indicator of power.

Houston Astros Quick Look:

Ronel Blanco has had more latitude than the typical pitcher this year, totaling 6.0 more adjusted pitches per outing than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with longer leads are more likely to go further in games and record more strikeouts.

Jose Altuve has been negatively regressing with his Barrel% lately; his seasonal rate of 7.3% has decreased to 0% over the past two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit speed and launch angle and is an excellent measure of underlying power.

Jose Altuve is hitting a high percentage of his fly balls (41.6% – 99th percentile) and has a chance to hit them to the second-shallowest LF fences in the game today.

• This player’s skillset is particularly well suited to the field he is playing on today, which could lead to better than usual performances.

Gaming Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the home run line in 27 of their last 37 games (+19.10 units / 41% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the under total in 50 of their last 89 games (+12.90 units / 13% ROI)
• Mauricio Dubon has reached the lower base total in 17 of his last 22 games (+7.90 units / 20% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final score: Texas Rangers 4.82 vs. Houston Astros 4.44

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