Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Prediction for 07/14/2024

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: July 14, 2024
• Place: Petco Park
• Starting pitchers:
  • Chris Sale – The Braves
  • Randy Vasquez – Padres

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Winning Odds

The implied win percentage in sports betting represents the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It is a way for punters to assess the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by bookmakers.

Projected Win Percentage, also known as Projected Win Probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood of a team winning a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres will host the Atlanta Braves at Petco Park on July 14, 2024, in Game 3 of their series. The Padres are having an average season with a 50-48 record, while the Braves are having a good season with a 52-42 record. This National League matchup features two starting pitchers with contrasting profiles: Randy Vasquez for the Padres and Chris Sale for the Braves.

Right-handed pitcher Randy Vasquez has struggled this year, going 2-4 with a 4.66 ERA. Despite his average, his 6.32 ERA suggests he’s gotten lucky and could be experiencing a downturn. Vasquez will face a Braves offense that ranks 14th in MLB, with an unimpressive 18th-ranked team batting average. Vasquez’s low walk rate (5.5 BB%) could work against him, as the Braves are the 5th-least walk-prone team, which could make it easier for them to capitalize on their opportunities.

On the mound for the Braves, Chris Sale is having an elite season, as evidenced by his 12-3 record and 2.74 ERA. According to THE BAT X, MLB’s premier projection system, Sale’s 2.22 FIP indicates he’s been unlucky and could do even better in the future. He’ll face a Padres offense that ranks 2nd in team batting average and 11th in home runs. While Sale’s high strikeout rate (33.0 K%) is a strength, the Padres are the 3rd least strikeout-prone team, potentially negating one of their biggest advantages.

The Padres’ bullpen is ranked 12th overall, while the Braves’ is ranked eighth, indicating a slight advantage for Atlanta in late-game scenarios. Both teams have potent offenses, but projections favor the Braves’ ability to capitalize on Vasquez’s struggles and Sale’s ability to effectively navigate the Padres’ lineup.

The betting odds reflect this, with the Braves as heavy favorites (-175) and an implied win probability of 62%. The Padres, considered underdogs (+155), have an implied win probability of 38%. With the game total set at 7.5 runs, expect strong pitching performances, but lean toward a Braves win.

Atlanta Braves Quick Look:

Chris Sale has enjoyed more freedom of movement than the average pitcher this year, throwing 7.1 more adjusted pitches per outing than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with longer leads are more likely to go further in games and record more strikeouts.

Marcell Ozuna has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on fly balls this year; just compare his 98.6 mph average to last season’s 96.5 mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a good indicator of power.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen ranks 8th best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen insidiously creates a more difficult matchup for the opposing offense and takes runs out of a game.

San Diego Padres Quick Look:

Randy Vasquez has had some negative variance in his strikeouts this year, posting a K/9 of 5.90 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level at 6.89 – a 1 K/9 variance.

• Underperforming pitchers should be expected to pitch better in the future, which can create value on K prop overs if the lines weigh too heavily on lucky underperformance to date.

Xander Bogaerts has had some bad luck this year, posting a .260 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level at .328 – a .068 gap.

• Underperformers are to be expected to play worse in the future, which can create value on prop overs if lines weigh too heavily on unlucky underperformance to date.

Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his balls in the air to center field (41.1% – 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage against the second-shallowest CF fences in the league today.

• This player’s skillset is particularly well suited to the field he is playing on today, which could lead to better than usual performances.

Gaming Trends

• The San Diego Padres have reached the completed game total in 26 of their last 43 home games (+7.45 units / 16% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the under total in 44 of their last 68 games (+20.60 units / 27% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts has run unders in 20 of his last 28 games (+7.60 units / 16% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final score: Atlanta Braves 4.73 vs. San Diego Padres 3.82

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