Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins

• Nico Collins gives hope to all third-year receivers: Collins exploded in a major way during the 2023 season, becoming one of the five highest-rated receivers in the NFL.

• Competition for targets is stronger than you think: The Houston Texans not only added Stefon Diggs but they made sure they could run the ball better and had the best backup receivers in the league.

• Get a head start on fantasy football: To use PFF Fantasy Football Draft Simulator to create real live draft simulations to prepare you for your live draft!

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

The Player Profile Series provides the most detailed view of a player possible by using the best data points available to PFF to examine the player’s performance, the competition the player faces for touches and the impact of other teammates and coaches on each player’s performance.

Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Friday, July 12

Player Performances

Collins made an incredible leap from his second to third NFL season, a testament not only to the changes in the Houston Texans’ coaching staff and the upgrade at quarterback, but also to Collins’ power.

He ran slightly fewer routes per game, his target rate only increased by a few percentage points, but he nearly doubled his yards per route run. He was exceptional against double coverage as well as when he was open. It didn’t make much difference if he faced one-on-one or zone coverage, or if he was rushed or not. Based solely on his 2023 performance, he should be considered a top-10 receiver in the league. It’s fair to rank him a bit lower than that given that he’s a one-year wonder at this point, but if he can just repeat his 2023 season, he should be considered among the best in the league.

Touch competition

The big problem with Collins and his fantasy value is the competition he faces for snaps and targets. Collins’ 28 carries per game last year were lower than what you’d expect from a player of his caliber, as the Texans rotated their receivers frequently.

The Texans were consistently without one of their top four receivers last season outside of Week 1 before Dell Tank burst and a quarter of a game in the middle of the season. Despite this, they still limited the shots of their starters, like John Metchie III And Xavier Hutchinson Both players averaged 10 carries per game each. The only time Collins played more than 80 percent of the snaps was when a receiver was injured during a game or there were multiple receivers out due to injury.

The top six players on the depth chart are back this year, and they added Stefon DiggsAn argument can be made for Collins, Diggs and Dell Tank as the best trio of receivers in the NFL. Noah Brown And Robert Woods are both capable of being top-three receivers on at least a few other teams. That’s great news for Texans fans, but it will make things stressful for fantasy managers who will be selecting one of them.

Impact of teammates

The Texans added Bobby Slowik as offensive coordinator last season. His offense looked different than San Francisco 49ers where he worked as an assistant for several years, but some of that was based on the Texans’ personnel. They used more plays with three wide receiver sets, but only after blocking the tight end Teagan Quitoriano suffered a season-ending injury. With the return of Quitoriano and the selection of a versatile tight end Cade Stoverwe might see the Texans use more two-receiver sets than most fantasy managers would like.

The Texans also ran more than expected despite their strengths in the passing game, weaknesses at running back and lack of consistency on the offensive line. Ten different linemen played at least 200 snaps for the team last year. Three of the five starters projected for this season were held to fewer than 450 snaps. We could also see the Texans invest more in the running game this season.

We probably won’t see the Texans be as extremely run-oriented as the 49ers have been in the past, in part because they have CJ Stroud. While much of this article has focused on the negatives that have played against Collins, most of those points can be forgiven if Stroud takes a step forward as a passer. He had one of the best rookie quarterback seasons of all time, but he still has plenty of room to grow to become one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

In conclusion

Collins was very consistent when healthy last season, but it will be difficult for him to be a top-24 receiver in 60 percent of Houston’s games again this year given the Texans’ investment in other players. His ADP is in the top 15 and is the riskiest of the group. He could finish third on the team in receiving production, but if Stroud improves and the team sticks to the passing game, Collins certainly has top-five potential.

Footnotes

• The statistics in the charts and graphs were generally chosen based on their ability to predict future fantasy performance, either on a per-game or per-opportunity basis, or chosen for their ability to describe the player relative to other players at the same position.
• Opportunities for this are defined by passing dropbacks, rushing attempts, and receiving routes run.
• The numbers are either per season or based on the last three years. For starters, only college numbers are included. For non-starters, only NFL numbers are included, even if they played in college in the last three years.
• Given that college competition is relatively easier than NFL competition, it can be expected that most rookies will see their numbers decline from their historical numbers.
• For all charts in this article, the colors range from blue (good or high) to red (bad or low).
• All percentiles or colors compare the given player to other players with a high sample size of opportunities. Typically, this is one-third of the possible opportunities given by the sample. If the player in question does not have enough opportunities, they are still compared, even though a player may look good or bad on this small sample size which might not be as predictive.
• Information on usage classifications and the importance of running backs can be found here, receiver here And tight end here.