EU suspends Georgia’s accession process: Analysis of the situation

EU leaders had previously raised the possibility of suspending the process due to the adoption of the law on foreign influence in Georgia. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell stressed that if the Georgian government continued on its current course, the doors to the EU would remain closed to the country.

Pawel Herczynski also reported that EU leaders had decided to freeze 30 million euros intended to strengthen Georgia’s defense capabilities. “Our direct support to the Georgian government will decrease and we will try to direct this support to civil society and the media,” the diplomat noted.

Herczynski added that the decision to suspend Georgia’s EU accession process was taken by EU leaders at a meeting on June 27. He expressed hope that the new government would begin “serious work on Georgia’s integration into the EU” after the October elections, while stressing that there was little time left for change.

On July 9, it became known that EU leaders had decided to freeze 30 million euros intended to strengthen Georgia’s defense capabilities. The country’s President Salome Zurabishvili stated that the postponement of joint US-Georgian exercises and the freezing of financial aid were the result of the hasty and hostile policy of the Georgian authorities.

Relations between Georgia and the West deteriorated in the spring of 2024 after the adoption of the Foreign Agents Law. Several American and European politicians opposed this initiative, believing it could limit freedom of speech and affect the activities of independent media.

Georgian political analyst Gela Vasadze told News.Az that the EU Ambassador to Georgia, Pawel Herczynski, distorted the facts. Vasadze believes that the EU leaders understand well the intentions of the Georgian leadership. “The Georgian leadership intends to rule forever. But nothing lasts forever; people do not live forever. Georgia is ruled by Bidzina Ivanishvili, and he wants to rule forever, changing ministers and possibly even his party. He does not want Europe and the US to see this. Is it possible? Maybe. The adjustment period has just begun,” the expert noted.

Gela Vasadze also noted that the US should impose sanctions on the Georgian opposition in order to unite it and force it to fight against the current government, which deviates from democratic values. “Unification is the only scenario in which the opposition can defeat the ‘Georgian Dream’ in the parliamentary elections in October,” he is convinced.

In return, The Ukrainian political scientist Oleksandr Okhrimenko told News.Az that Georgia is not worried about the current situation. “Georgia is already dependent on Russia and the desire to join the EU has decreased. Joining the EU was popular in Saakashvili’s time, but after the introduction of visa-free travel, many Georgians went to Europe and became anti-European. That is why Russia is popular in Georgia today. Russians buy real estate in Georgia and most tourists come from Russia. Consequently, Georgia’s future is linked to Russia,” the expert explained.

The Russian political scientist Daria Grevtsova told News.Az that there are several political groups in Georgia. “The main group represented in parliament is moderately radical towards the West and supports former supporters of Saakashvili. Another group is oriented towards Russia and is small, but still exists. The suspension of Georgia’s accession to the EU has several reasons. Firstly, despite pressure from Western countries, Georgia did not join the anti-Russian sanctions after 2022. Secondly, many Russian tourists came to Georgia, which helped support the economy. In addition, the Georgian population does not support the radical plans of the opposition to return Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which could lead to a new war that no one wants,” the expert said.

The Russian analyst stressed that the law “On Transparency of Foreign Influence” was adopted to protect the ruling coalition from Western interference. “This has reduced Western influence and lowered the risk of a coup. Georgia does not yet plan to abandon its economic ties with Russia, which is beneficial for both countries. However, the idea of ​​joining the EU has not disappeared. Western leaders are considering the possibility of a new coup in Georgia aimed at appointing a radical pro-Western president. This would require repealing the laws on foreign agents and breaking off relations with Russia. Western countries are also urging Georgia to join the sanctions against Russia. Otherwise, Georgia will not be able to continue to participate in EU funding programs,” D. Drevtsova explained.

News.Az