Buffalo Bills 2024 Predictions and Odds

2024 Buffalo Bills Predictions and Odds:

The 2023 season was an eventful one for the Buffalo Bills. The team was 5-5 SU/3-7 ATS after the first 10 games of the season, but finished 6-1 SU/4-3 ATS to finish second in the AFC. The Bills were an attractive pick to emerge from the AFC, but were eliminated by the Chiefs for the second time in three years. Buffalo enters the 2024 season with similar championship aspirations, but massive roster changes and a strong division will present a challenge.

Offense

Josh Allen remains in place at the most important position in football, and as long as he’s healthy, Buffalo will have a chance to compete. Allen had the highest offensive grade among quarterbacks according to PFF (92.1) in 2023, and he was third at the position in EPA per play (.193).

The Best NFL Resources:

Buffalo’s receiving corps looks uncertain on paper after the losses of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis (241 combined targets). Khalil Shakir — who caught 39 balls for 611 yards and two touchdowns last season — is the most productive returning receiver. Curtis Samuel, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chase Claypool and Mack Hollins all join the team to form the core. Rookie Keon Coleman — a second-round pick — should develop quickly.

Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown played over 1,200 snaps at tackle in 2023. In 310 actual passing snaps, Dawkins allowed just 29 pressures and Brown allowed just 26 in 313 snaps. Connor McGovern looks to be a good replacement at center for the released Mitch Morse. At guard, David Edwards and O’Cyrus Torrence are projected to be starters. Edwards put up excellent numbers, but in fewer than 200 snaps. Torrence, on the other hand, had a 54.9 offensive rating and allowed 46 pressures for the season while posting a 48.2 pass-blocking grade.

Defense

Safety is Buffalo’s biggest concern. None of the current defensive backs have posted a PFF defensive grade higher than 65.3 (Cam Lewis). The projected starters are Taylor Rapp and Mike Edwards. Edwards in particular allowed 23 receptions on 38 targets last season.

Cornerback is the Bills’ strongest defensive position and could be the team’s second-best group outside of quarterback. Christian Benford is a legitimate cornerback who finished eighth at the position in PFF defensive grade in 2023. He allowed just two touchdowns all season, broke up seven passes, and caught two interceptions. Rasul Douglas and Taron Johnson ranked 11th and 17th, respectively, in PFF grade at the position.

The Bills are pretty bland at linebacker, but there aren’t any major weaknesses there. On the defensive line, Greg Rousseau is the anchor of the group after a career season in which he recorded seven sacks, 62 pressures and 32 tackles. AJ Epenesa hasn’t really proven himself yet, but he’s coming off the best season of his career.

Perspectives

Buffalo has one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but the talented group around him lacks explosive talent. How much can Allen improve them? The Bills can be assumed to be a good team competing for their division and a playoff spot, but the roster doesn’t look like an elite group. Given the market’s expectations—a 10.5 win total and a favorite to win the division—this is a team that could have a disappointing season by those standards.

Buffalo Bills Prediction: Under 10.5 wins