Smart move? Banking on seemingly low TD pass numbers for Bills QB Josh Allen

It seems like a gamble worth taking, especially considering recent history.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has thrown at least 29 touchdown passes in each of the last four seasons, so it was a bit surprising to see Allen’s touchdown pass total set at 27.5 for the 2024 season.

DraftKings The bookmaker offers the OVER bet with odds of +110.

Sports IllustratedJennifer Piacenti highlighted player betting in the Buffalo edition of “32 Teams in 32 Days.”

Best Bet: Allen with over 27.5 passing touchdowns (+110) at DraftKings

Sure, the Bills may look very different on paper, but Allen hasn’t thrown fewer than 28 TDs since 2019. I’m optimistic the Bills can turn around. Shakir, Kincaid, and Coleman are good enough to do it, and I like the fact that the team is making more money here. — Jennifer Piacenti

Allen has thrown for 167 touchdowns in 94 career games. His totals over the last four seasons are: 29, 35, 36, 37.

RELATED: Another category where Josh Allen leads the NFL

Allen, 28, has also shown great durability so far and has proven himself worthy of backing in the betting market.

In terms of touchdowns, Allen has a history of distributing the ball to a wide range of receivers, so the fact that Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are no longer on the roster shouldn’t matter much. Ten different Bills have had TD receptions from Allen in 2023. In 2020, that number was 12.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

— Get free Bills coverage from Buffalo Bills on SI —