Investigation shows: EU grenade production capacity far below official figures

The EU’s promises to supply 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine have not been kept due to “wishful thinking” and the fact that existing stocks may be “at least twice as low as stated by senior EU officials,” the investigative project RFE/RL Schemes reported on July 8.

The poor performance of the European arms industry became clear when the EU failed to keep its promise Fire 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine between March 2023 and 2024. After only about half of the promised ammunition was delivered, the deadline postponed until the end of 2024.

Journalists found that weapons manufacturers in Europe are capable of producing about half as many grenades as Brussels officials claim, and the EU has so far delivered only half as many grenades to Kyiv as originally promised.

For example, EU Commissioner Thierry Breton claimed in June that manufacturers in the EU could produce 1.7 million grenades annually.

A senior European defense industry source told RFE/RL on condition of anonymity that “current capacity is still only a third of that number.”

Other sources said Europe’s production capacity was about 500,000-600,000 shells per year. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said in February that Ukraine needed 200,000 155mm shells per month.

The European Commission said its assessment of the EU’s production capacity was based on “facts” and “takes into account current investments” in the sector, RFE/RL said.

An Estonian intelligence report from February 2024 estimated that Russia was capable of delivering up to 3–4 million units of artillery ammunition to the front in 2023, partly by reprocessing Soviet stocks.

“It is virtually certain that Western ammunition supplies to Ukraine will not be able to keep up in 2024,” and the gap “in available artillery ammunition between Ukraine and Russia is likely to widen further in 2024,” the report said.